Will a Mid-Major School Win a Title?

[bigmike]

So, I was thinking the other day while watching the highlights of Gonzaga's latest win and I was wondering if anyone thinks that a mid major will ever win a NCAA title?

I think if any team has the chance, it'd be this Gonzaga team with the way Adam Morrison is playing out of his mind (you could make the case that last year's team was better with Tauriaf down low).

So, any chance of a Mid Major National Champion?

[Kram41]

Sure there's a chance. This Gonzaga team can hang with anybody out there and beat anybody. It's just a matter of getting hot when tournament time comes around.

[bigmike]

Sure there's a chance. This Gonzaga team can hang with anybody out there and beat anybody. It's just a matter of getting hot when tournament time comes around.

okay, let me rephrase, will a mid major school win an NCAA title?

[LeftWideOpen]

okay, let me rephrase, will a mid major school win an NCAA title?

no. The disparity in recruiting these days is too much of a difference to make up ..not even a superb talent like Morrison can make up for it. Gonzaga would have to have an easy draw, with the seeds ahead of and right behind them in their bracket being upset because mid-majors lack the depth to roll off 6 in a row against quality opponents. Here's a hypothetical situation to consider, according to Lunardi's latest Bracketology

1st round: theyd play another mid major ..easy enough.
2nd round: Arizona
sweet 16: Illinois
elite eight: duke
final four: villanova/florida/oklahoma
title game: uconn/texas

I can't see any mid major being capable of sustaining a level of play to defeat Arizona, Illinois, Duke, Villanova, and UCONN - all in a row. The depth of talent is too overwhelming.

[aminorthreat55]

We're gonna win it all this year.

Haha I wish.

[bigmike]

no. The disparity in recruiting these days is too much of a difference to make up ..not even a superb talent like Morrison can make up for it. Gonzaga would have to an easy draw, with the seeds ahead of and right behind them in their bracket being upset because mid-majors lack the depth to roll off 6 in a row against quality opponents.

Really? Even with the influx of upper tier recruits having to go to college for a year before jumping to the draft? I mean, the kids that would normally be the upper tier kids won't be since the biggest high school talents will have to go to college now, thus, possibly dropping kids that would have been coming off the bench at Duke to not go there since they maybe passed up for even better kids that a year ago might not have gone to college.

I don't know, it's probably wishful thinking, I suppose.

[mat1419]

It will happen, it won't ever become a regular thing, but honestly, all it takes a lucky hometown kid to pull it out once

[GAD_guy]

yes. i can safely promise that some day a mid-major team will win a title. it may not be this year, but it will happen.

[Kram41]

okay, let me rephrase, will a mid major school win an NCAA title?

Umm...I think I just answered that question, why did you need to rephrase?

[LeftWideOpen]

Really? Even with the influx of upper tier recruits having to go to college for a year before jumping to the draft? I mean, the kids that would normally be the upper tier kids won't be since the biggest high school talents will have to go to college now, thus, possibly dropping kids that would have been coming off the bench at Duke to not go there since they maybe passed up for even better kids that a year ago might not have gone to college.

I don't know, it's probably wishful thinking, I suppose.

A lot of those kids who would skip right to the NBA are likely only to stay for a year. The coaches know that and they prepare ..if anything, I think the new rule just makes the best progams, like Duke, even stronger at recruiting. They get the talent thats already ready for the collegiate game - plus the kids that in the past have been their blue chips.

I'd love to see the playing field level off like that, but I just don't think its possible since most lack the resources and committment from the universities to attract the best talent. They have to rely on a "hometown discount" so to speak, where the star kid wants to stay local.

[BrandNew20]

Gonzaga is the number ten team in the nation, of course they have a good chance of winning the title. It'll happen someday.

[bigmike]

A lot of those kids who would skip right to the NBA are likely only to stay for a year. The coaches know that and they prepare ..if anything, I think the new rule just makes the best progams, like Duke, even stronger at recruiting.

I'd love to see the playing field level off like that, but I just don't think its possible since most lack the resources and committment from the universities to attract the best talent. They have to rely on a "hometown discount" so to speak, where the star kid wants to stay local.

Yeah, I see your point.

[aminorthreat55]

no. The disparity in recruiting these days is too much of a difference to make up ..not even a superb talent like Morrison can make up for it. Gonzaga would have to have an easy draw, with the seeds ahead of and right behind them in their bracket being upset because mid-majors lack the depth to roll off 6 in a row against quality opponents. Here's a hypothetical situation to consider, according to Lunardi's latest Bracketology

1st round: theyd play another mid major ..easy enough.
2nd round: Arizona
sweet 16: Illinois
elite eight: duke
final four: villanova/florida/oklahoma
title game: uconn/texas

I can't see any mid major being capable of sustaining a level of play to defeat Arizona, Illinois, Duke, Villanova, and UCONN - all in a row. The depth of talent is too overwhelming.
All that needs to happen is a couple teams screw up, not necessarily against the team that wins, and you can have one win it all. Like last year with Vermont taking out Syracuse. If that happens in the right places and the pieces fall in the right order, a small market team (which is essentially what a mid-major school represents) can definitely win a national title over the huge national programs.

[EnderDove]

no. The disparity in recruiting these days is too much of a difference to make up ..not even a superb talent like Morrison can make up for it. Gonzaga would have to have an easy draw, with the seeds ahead of and right behind them in their bracket being upset because mid-majors lack the depth to roll off 6 in a row against quality opponents. Here's a hypothetical situation to consider, according to Lunardi's latest Bracketology

1st round: theyd play another mid major ..easy enough.
2nd round: Arizona
sweet 16: Illinois
elite eight: duke
final four: villanova/florida/oklahoma
title game: uconn/texas

I can't see any mid major being capable of sustaining a level of play to defeat Arizona, Illinois, Duke, Villanova, and UCONN - all in a row. The depth of talent is too overwhelming.

Texas in the title game? Thats funny.

[LeftWideOpen]

Texas in the title game? Thats funny.

It was a hypothetical given the bracket Lunardi had - they were a #1 seed at the time.

All that needs to happen is a couple teams screw up, not necessarily against the team that wins, and you can have one win it all. Like last year with Vermont taking out Syracuse. If that happens in the right places and the pieces fall in the right order, a small market team (which is essentially what a mid-major school represents) can definitely win a national title over the huge national programs.

You're right. I mentioned that ..I do think it can happen if a few of the teams in front of them are upset early. I'd love to see it too because it would be a great story and entertaining to watch. But theres no way a mid major, even one as good as Gonzaga, could realistically beat four top 15 teams, two of which are probably top 5, to win the title. They'd burn out much faster because of their bench.

[preppyak]

It was a hypothetical given the bracket Lunardi had - they were a #1 seed at the time.
.
There was your mistake, Lunardi is an idiot. Have you seen the latest update, he has UNC as a 6 or 7 seed, and managed to take Kansas out of the bracket, despite them being the 3rd or 4th best team in the Big 12. He also has Kentucky as a 7, come on, their losses were to two ranked teams (Iowa and Indiana), and UNC, usually a perenial powerhouse.

I hope he doesn't enter a tournament pool at ESPN, he will get raped.

[LeftWideOpen]

There was your mistake, Lunardi is an idiot. Have you seen the latest update, he has UNC as a 6 or 7 seed, and managed to take Kansas out of the bracket, despite them being the 3rd or 4th best team in the Big 12. He also has Kentucky as a 7, come on, their losses were to two ranked teams (Iowa and Indiana), and UNC, usually a perenial powerhouse.

I hope he doesn't enter a tournament pool at ESPN, he will get raped.

yeah but you're missing the point ...my point is that a mid-major won't be able to win a championship because of the consistent quality of opponents. This season's Gonzaga team is great ..but they've already proved the point I'm trying to make by beating Maryland and Mich St, but then losing to UCONN and Washington.

It's so tough for a mid major to win it all because there are so many major programs that have superior talent, but more importantly they have depth to sustain long winning streaks, especially against quality opponents.

[weezer182]

mid-major could easily win it all one year....in fact gonzaga is good enough to win it all this year

[bigmike]

There was your mistake, Lunardi is an idiot. Have you seen the latest update, he has UNC as a 6 or 7 seed, and managed to take Kansas out of the bracket, despite them being the 3rd or 4th best team in the Big 12. He also has Kentucky as a 7, come on, their losses were to two ranked teams (Iowa and Indiana), and UNC, usually a perenial powerhouse.

I hope he doesn't enter a tournament pool at ESPN, he will get raped.

and Iowa lost to Iowa State, a less-superior team
And Indiana lost to Indiana State.

I think half of america didn't realize there was an Indiana State after Larry Bird left for the NBA.

[somethingyellow]

gonzaga isn't even completely healthy and have already shown they can be very good teams, obviously gonzaga won't be favored to win the tournament but there is no team in america that they cannot beat if they play well enough

[LeftWideOpen]

so you guys really think, if this situation came up (and certainly could) ... Gonzaga could beat Washington in the Sweet 16, then beat Texas in the elite eight, then beat UCONN in the final four, then beat Duke in the finals? All 4 of those teams ..in a row? They've already lost to two of them in the regular season.

[somethingyellow]

so you guys really think, if this situation came up (and certainly could) ... Gonzaga could beat Washington in the Sweet 16, then beat Texas in the elite eight, then beat UCONN in the final four, then beat Duke in the finals? All 4 of those teams ..in a row? They've already lost to two of them in the regular season.
yes, i do. they havent had there best defender playing all year and raivio got hurt playing at UW to a good UW team and they still had a chance to win. does that answer your question?

[Goodbye Forever]

http://www.lvrj.com/lvrj_home/2000/Apr-02-Sun-2000/photos/celebrate.jpg

It can be done.

[bigmike]

so you guys really think, if this situation came up (and certainly could) ... Gonzaga could beat Washington in the Sweet 16, then beat Texas in the elite eight, then beat UCONN in the final four, then beat Duke in the finals? All 4 of those teams ..in a row? They've already lost to two of them in the regular season.

depends.
Is texas really that good if they lost by 31, I believe, to Duke? Duke's good, but not 31 points better then the 2nd best team in America.

[YouMadeTheScene]

How about in football? You guys think a mid-major can win in football ever??

[preppyak]

yeah but you're missing the point ...
I know that I missed that, I just wanted to take my shot at lunardi, I hate the man.

and Iowa lost to Iowa State, a less-superior team
And Indiana lost to Indiana State.

I think half of america didn't realize there was an Indiana State after Larry Bird left for the NBA.

Yeah, but that doesn't mean that Kentucky lost to Iowa State and Indiana State. Iowa and Indiana had lapses, like all good teams do, against them. They showed how good they can be by beating a very good (higher than 7 seed, probably at least 4) Kentucky team

[preppyak]

How about in football? You guys think a mid-major can win in football ever??
It's hard enough for teams to beat USC, let alone a mid-major doing it. The thing is, one player can change a b-ball game more than 1 person can change a football game. A mid-major with an amazing QB can be shut down by that team focusing on him far easier than a team shutting down a great point guard.

depends.
Is texas really that good if they lost by 31, I believe, to Duke? Duke's good, but not 31 points better then the 2nd best team in America.
Texas is arrogant, plain and simple. They thought they could simply outscore Duke, which they failed miserably at. Their defense was left in the locker room. They are a top 10 team, maybe even top 5, but they can not and will not win it all. Too many kids wanting it to be them showboating.

[bigmike]

How about in football? You guys think a mid-major can win in football ever??

I don't see how it'd be possible. The depth arguement holds more validity in football as well as the recruiting arguement. And injuries are more frequent in football, it's too difficult and won't be done. ever.

[bigmike]

I know that I missed that, I just wanted to take my shot at lunardi, I hate the man.



Yeah, but that doesn't mean that Kentucky lost to Iowa State and Indiana State. Iowa and Indiana had lapses, like all good teams do, against them. They showed how good they can be by beating a very good (higher than 7 seed, probably at least 4) Kentucky team

when it comes to tourney time, rarely trust a Big Ten school to perform well. There's exceptions, of course.

[bigmike]

Bump.

With George Mason's run, does it change anyone's opinions?

[weezer182]

my opinions haven't changed

[Caleb Cattivera]

hmm interesting question. i havent read through all of this so i dont know if its been posted. up until the late sixties the national champion was decided at the NIT and not the ncaa tourney. quite a few mid majors in the 50s, 60s and 70s won.

[somethingyellow]

my opinions haven't changedSame here. I'd love to see George Mason do it

[bigmike]

hmm interesting question. i havent read through all of this so i dont know if its been posted. up until the late sixties the national champion was decided at the NIT and not the ncaa tourney. quite a few mid majors in the 50s, 60s and 70s won.
yea, that hasn't been posted, but i'm talking more in terms of a mid major winning the ncaa tournament in the future.

[bigmike]

Same here. I'd love to see George Mason do it
i want them to win it.

[Caleb Cattivera]

yea, that hasn't been posted, but i'm talking more in terms of a mid major winning the ncaa tournament in the future.

oh. yes. i think it can happen and i hope it does this year. george mason is the best thing about the final four. if it wasnt for them i probaly wouldnt wathc.

[somethingyellow]

i want them to win it.After saying that, I think just about everybody does unless you go/went to one of the other schools or are from that area

[bigmike]

After saying that, I think just about everybody does unless you go/went to one of the other schools or are from that area
good point. but i don't think they will. i think they'll lose to florida.

[somethingyellow]

good point. but i don't think they will. i think they'll lose to florida.It will be tough for them but you never know

[catscradle]

After saying that, I think just about everybody does unless you go/went to one of the other schools or are from that area
It kinda sucks when the whole country wants your team to lose...but i think if anybody can beat Meorge Mason then it's definately the gators. The front court is pretty tough and it only takes a couple lee humphrey threes to put UF up big. But hey, GMU is playing some helluva good basketball right now. So we'll all see on saturday at 6. So i'll leave with this since no one is saying it around the country. GO GATORS!

[preppyak]

so you guys really think, if this situation came up (and certainly could) ... Gonzaga could beat Washington in the Sweet 16, then beat Texas in the elite eight, then beat UCONN in the final four, then beat Duke in the finals? All 4 of those teams ..in a row? They've already lost to two of them in the regular season.
Michigan State, UNC, Withcita State, UConn....I mean, in that vein it is a pretty solid resume, even if those teams are down a bit this year.


Texas is arrogant, plain and simple. They thought they could simply outscore Duke, which they failed miserably at. Their defense was left in the locker room. They are a top 10 team, maybe even top 5, but they can not and will not win it all. Too many kids wanting it to be them showboating.
wow, I really hated Texas early on...guess things changed there.

[LeftWideOpen]

yeah but you're missing the point ...my point is that a mid-major won't be able to win a championship because of the consistent quality of opponents. This season's Gonzaga team is great ..but they've already proved the point I'm trying to make by beating Maryland and Mich St, but then losing to UCONN and Washington.

It's so tough for a mid major to win it all because there are so many major programs that have superior talent, but more importantly they have depth to sustain long winning streaks, especially against quality opponents.

so you guys really think, if this situation came up (and certainly could) ... Gonzaga could beat Washington in the Sweet 16, then beat Texas in the elite eight, then beat UCONN in the final four, then beat Duke in the finals? All 4 of those teams ..in a row? They've already lost to two of them in the regular season.

:doof:

[preppyak]

:doof:
agreed.

[asianxcore]

is conf usa a mid now?

[preppyak]

is conf usa a mid now?
I believe it's still considered major...but I could be wrong on that.

Within a year or two, that will change though if it hasn't already

[asianxcore]

I believe it's still considered major...but I could be wrong on that.

Within a year or two, that will change though if it hasn't already
memphis will be scary next year.

[preppyak]

memphis will be scary next year.
No doubt...next year is probably going to be even more ridiculous then this year...if that's possible

[LeftWideOpen]

agreed.

i still stand by my comments until GMU actually pulls it off ....but I'm rooting for them, not against them. What they've done is amazing, but the question was "could they win it all?" and that's still yet to be seen.

[preppyak]

i still stand by my comments until GMU actually pulls it off ....but I'm rooting for them, not against them. What they've done is amazing, but the question was "could they win it all?" and that's still yet to be seen.
Yeah, I mean they've beaten 3 major schools including the team expected to win it all...but, they still have 2 major schools to go through.

That's a rough road...but like I had said probably a month ago in my belief that Texas could win it all, long TV timeouts and breaks allow teams with weaker benches to succeed anyway, so I think GMU still has a good shot.

It'll be an interesting weekend.

[bigmike]

is conf usa a mid now?
They're a major conference, but not a Power conference like the ACC or Big East, etc..

i still stand by my comments until GMU actually pulls it off ....but I'm rooting for them, not against them. What they've done is amazing, but the question was "could they win it all?" and that's still yet to be seen.
I'm sticking with "no". I don't think a mid major will win a nat'l title. I'd love for GMU to do it but I think they lose to Florida. If for nothing else, complacency has to set in at some point, doesn't it? Not to mention beating the uconn and florida front court in back to back games is hard to do for a power conference team, let alone a mid major.

[preppyak]

I'm sticking with "no". I don't think a mid major will win a nat'l title. I'd love for GMU to do it but I think they lose to Florida. If for nothing else, complacency has to set in at some point, doesn't it? Not to mention beating the uconn and florida front court in back to back games is hard to do for a power conference team, let alone a mid major. Well, I think complacency won't set in...they were playing baseball in practice, they are genuinely enjoying themselves, and I think that if that can erase nerves early on in the game, they can get a lead and go from there.

It's a hard road, but with what they have done so far, I like their chances

oh and
Detroit Lions - Make me excited for the Tigers. That's sad.
Detroit Tigers - Make me excited for the Lions. That's sad.
MSU Men's Hoops - Oh well, at least Paul Davis is gone.

hahaha

[bigmike]

Well, I think complacency won't set in...they were playing baseball in practice, they are genuinely enjoying themselves, and I think that if that can erase nerves early on in the game, they can get a lead and go from there.

It's a hard road, but with what they have done so far, I like their chances

oh and
Detroit Lions - Make me excited for the Tigers. That's sad.
Detroit Tigers - Make me excited for the Lions. That's sad.
MSU Men's Hoops - Oh well, at least Paul Davis is gone.

hahaha

yeah. they've proved me wrong 4 times already, so why not 2 more times.

and that part of my sig. is all true. did you see on that draft list caleb posted mo ager being the 25th best prospect and paul davis at 28? twenty-fucking-eight. I could see him going to the pistons or something ridiculous and i'll have to hire a hit man or something to save my sanity.

[The Matt Kaufman]

bump

[bigmike]

Still not happening. In either sport.

[The Matt Kaufman]

Hey, ya never know.

[bigmike]

it's just way too hard. Look at GMU, they had about as good of a run as any mid major will ever have, yet, they were still short. eventually the talent will win out.

[IamTheINDUSTRY]

No doubt...next year is probably going to be even more ridiculous then this year...if that's possible



i completely agree. memphis is scary. who else? morrison is graduated now...(not that gonzaga wont make sweet 16 (they always do)) but what the hell? basketball is the best chance for midmajors. and it always will be...until the bcs has a playoff...(blahblahblah) same old bs.

[The Matt Kaufman]

it's just way too hard. Look at GMU, they had about as good of a run as any mid major will ever have, yet, they were still short. eventually the talent will win out.

of course..but a team like Hofstra who I think might be amazing has a great chance to do what GMU did and make a deep run..I wouldnt be shocked.

[bigmike]

of course..but a team like Hofstra who I think might be amazing has a great chance to do what GMU did and make a deep run..I wouldnt be shocked.
Eh, the deep runs don't happen that often. I don't think there's a shot at all of a mid-major winning a championship.

[LeftWideOpen]

Eh, the deep runs don't happen that often. I don't think there's a shot at all of a mid-major winning a championship.

i'm with you on this. not enough team speed or depth to keep up for 6 rounds in March/April.

[thejetstolehome]

of course..but a team like Hofstra who I think might be amazing has a great chance to do what GMU did and make a deep run..I wouldnt be shocked.

now i love hofstra--well the basketball team not the school itself. and even though they should've been in the tourney last year, i really don't know if they would've made a run. and i'm not really sure tehy will this year unless they change their style. last season it was kind of like a street ball style with no real designed plays and just a loose game plan. i think that can work against weaker opponents but agains the cream of the crop, it's hit or miss. it could hit because of the fact that defenses wouldn't be used to it. buuuuuuuut, it could miss because the defenses will obviously be a lot tougher.

[leftstranded]

i don't think we'll see it anytime soon. there are too many major teams getting all the top recruits. we will however see another mid major in the final for within the next 5-10 years(probably gonzaga unless they move to a major conference). As it's been said before, it's way too hard to keep up the level of competition for 6 rounds against the major schools.

We could see a more likely chance if they expand the field like they've talked about doing for the last couple years, but i don't see it happening in the near future

[preppyak]

Still not happening. In either sport.
Yep...agreed.

With the talent influx thanks to the NBA rule, yes, mid-majors may get a player or two who are great, but in reality it just means the major teams get sicker.

Take this year for example, KU pulled in some disgusting depth, UNC did as well, OSU, there are plenty more I could list but I think my point is made...

The talent pool at the major schools is just too great for a team from a mid-major (and I don't consider Conf USA a mid-major...they are a major conference, just not a power conference) to overcome....even more so now.

[aminorthreat55]

Clearly we're going to pull it off this year.