Question on Economics

[tommyishere]

For my Econ class at school we need to write an opinion paper on if we think the economy will be going up or back down or stay the same for awhile. Personally I know jackshit about this so i came here to ask you guys. The more opinions i have the better.

Thanks

[wrppdarndyrfngr]

its going to be a jobless recovery. meaning GDP will recover but Unemployment is going to remian high for awhile and may never get back to its pre-recession levels. Also dont look to consumers to start spending to help growth.

http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2009/08/expansion-recession-purgatory.html

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/08/21/the-answer-is-yes-2/

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/07/the-statistical-recovery/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/08/the-statistical-recovery-part-two/

[Sventhegreat]

Look at the trends that the economy has taken since post-civil war through the current recession we are in now, which you can generally find in any intro-level economics course, and you can clearly see all the ups and downs we've gone through. Over the last twenty years we've experienced economic prosperity in the ninties, a smaller recession in the early 2000s, to the big recession we are in now. Slowly but surely the economy will recover like it always has.

[thatwasamoment]

See: Japan

[SpacePunk]

It will probably go "up" a little this year, and then fall even further than the first time..

Double-Dip recession: here though, they talk about it being "W-shaped"

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/news/article.html?in_article_id=490514&in_page_id=2&position=moretopstories

[saysmydoctor]

Economic purgatory is catching on.

[lauren<3s music]

its going to be a jobless recovery. meaning GDP will recover but Unemployment is going to remian high for awhile and may never get back to its pre-recession levels. Also dont look to consumers to start spending to help growth.

http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2009/08/expansion-recession-purgatory.html

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/08/21/the-answer-is-yes-2/

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/07/the-statistical-recovery/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/08/the-statistical-recovery-part-two/
agreed. i think by summer 2010 unemployment rates will start to decline though and by then i would anticipate consumer spending would be up.

[Josh Weinstein]

Look at the trends that the economy has taken since post-civil war through the current recession we are in now, which you can generally find in any intro-level economics course, and you can clearly see all the ups and downs we've gone through. Over the last twenty years we've experienced economic prosperity in the ninties, a smaller recession in the early 2000s, to the big recession we are in now. Slowly but surely the economy will recover like it always has.

The recession in the U.S. is essentially over. Yet, it will take a year or two until unemployment is significantly down and consumer spending is significantly up. Your post also points out that Democratic presidencies improves the economy.

[Sventhegreat]

The recession in the U.S. is essentially over. Yet, it will take a year or two until unemployment is significantly down and consumer spending is significantly up. Your post also points out that Democratic presidencies improves the economy.

False.

[saysmydoctor]

That was probably overstepping it but it can't be said that Republican presidencies help the economy. As a matter of fact, every modern recession since Reagan has begun under a Republican Administration.

Fact.

[Josh Weinstein]

False.

Prove me wrong with facts and data and academic studies!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[oohlala43]

That was probably overstepping it but it can't be said that Republican presidencies help the economy. As a matter of fact, every modern recession since Reagan has begun under a Republican Administration.

Fact.

Agreed. I'm pretty sure that Bush Sr. and George W. both spent loads of money.

[saysmydoctor]

Agreed. I'm pretty sure that Bush Sr. and George W. both spent loads of money.
Not what I was going for, though that is also true.

[oohlala43]

Not what I was going for, though that is also true.

Hm, yeah. I thought about it after I posted, but I figured that it was fine to just say that.

As for the economy (being that it is the point of this thread):
We will probably be floundering for a little bit, but obviously there's been a small bounce back recently. Unemployment will still be high for a while, but the companies that are taking advantage of the situation will most likely come out stronger than ever. People made fortunes after we came out of the Great Depression.

[Sventhegreat]

Prove me wrong with facts and data and academic studies!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Here's your academic study:

http://www.darrelplant.com/images/bush_middle_finger.jpg

[saysmydoctor]

Uhm.

[Josh Weinstein]

Here's your academic study:

http://www.darrelplant.com/images/bush_middle_finger.jpg

nice try, moron.

[Sventhegreat]

Hey your picture didn't work, maybe try reposting it.

Hey thanks man.

[SpacePunk]

The Bush Administration played a massive part in fucking up the economy.

But the subprime crisis is largely about Clinton and Gramm.. it just so happened that Bush was there when that shit hit the fan.

[SmokieB.High]

Once the credit crisis comes to an end then maybe, maybe we will start seeing some recovery. Right now everything is still up and down because no one knows what is really happening. Are things getting better? are they still the same? or are we still going into a deeper recession? It takes about three months for this information to be comfirmed and wallstreet actully reacts to it. The industry I work in, we are finding ourselves short every month and constanly having to borrow money and until the job market gets better this is not gonna happen, and last time i checked the unemployment is still getting worse. Hopefully by mid-2010 this will no longer be an issue, the credit crisis will be over and the banks will be lending money to business that can provide jobs to people. To answer your question the economy is not going anywhere for a while, but will not get much worse then it was at the end of 2008.

[jeremypeele]

we're all fucked. just write that how many times it takes to fill up your paper.

[asmolitor]

moderately upwardly stagnant until Q3/Q4 2010 at the earliest.

[tommyishere]

we're all fucked. just write that how many times it takes to fill up your paper.

my teacher may buy that no joke, he's a goof

[pambeesley]

on a paper like this they dont need you to be correct, its all about the way your justifying your side of the arguement...your not an economist, and even economists have been so wrong about alot of the stuff going on lately...
if you refer alot to research about events of post-recessions of the past and you look at peoples spending patterns vs unemployment youll have an arguement that you cant geet screwed over with.