Canadian wants an opinion

[grantton]

ok (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hallucinations_(song)) so im canadian but i follow both our countries politics very closely and i expect that I being a fiscial and social conservative am quite the minority here. im not too sure if this has been discussed recently but does anyone think the house of reps may swich from blue to red in 2010?

[1mastalker]

http://420.thrashbarg.net/i_see_what_you_fucking_did_there_bi rd.jpg

[rawspinner]

[EDIT]:

I am an idiot. Ignore me.

[saysmydoctor]

Short answer: No. Long answer: No, but we will lose Blue Dog seats and that Coalition's relevance will be greatly diminished because its their seats that are the most in jeopardy.

[atticus18244fss]

What does this have to do with AVA?

[Machu505]

Not at all.

[xshady121]

Yes.



Edit: Hah, kidding. They'll have a net gain of seats, but not enough to win back control

[rawesome]

Woah, woah, woah. No one gives any explanations around here anymore?

I think it is unlikely simply because of the current size differentiation. There are nearly 100 more Democrats than Republicans, so I don't see Conservatives making up that big of a deficit in just two years. I'm certain that the Democrats will probably lose a few seats, however.

[Machu505]

Ok I'll explain:

The danger the Democrats face has been overblown by the media and it's obviously too early right now for polls to matter. That, coupled with Republicans choosing candidates farther and farther to the right, will mean the Democrats will not lose their majority.

[rawesome]

Ok I'll explain:

The danger the Democrats face has been overblown by the media and it's obviously too early right now for polls to matter. That, coupled with Republicans choosing candidates farther and farther to the right, will mean the Democrats will not lose their majority.
I've felt the same way. I mean, Democrats made a pretty clean sweep just over a year ago in the election and there are more registered Democrats than there are Republicans. I think the reason why it seems like they are losing so much media ground is because the biggest, loudest voices are all Conservatives.

[xshady121]

Woah, woah, woah. No one gives any explanations around here anymore?

I think it is unlikely simply because of the current size differentiation. There are nearly 100 more Democrats than Republicans, so I don't see Conservatives making up that big of a deficit in just two years. I'm certain that the Democrats will probably lose a few seats, however.

I've felt the same way. I mean, Democrats made a pretty clean sweep just over a year ago in the election and there are more registered Democrats than there are Republicans. I think the reason why it seems like they are losing so much media ground is because the biggest, loudest voices are all Conservatives.

1) House currently sits at 235-198 D-R. I do'nt know how you thought there was nearly 100 more , unless you're including the senate too, but the question at hand was stirctly house.

2) There's always been way more registered dems than repubs. This isn't anything new, and is really irrelevant here.



How don't you feel the dems can lose that many seats? In midterm elections alone the minority party gained...

2006- dems gained 31,
2002- repubs gained 8,
1998- dems gained 5
1994-repubs gained 54

I would compare these with the presidents approval rating at the time, but I'm pressed for time. I don't think one was ever as low as president obama's. I don't see the repubs winning control, but a net gain of 8 or 10 isn't out of the question.

To blame this on the media and saying it is "a lot worse than it really is" in the eye of the media, is mistaken on your part.

[rawesome]

1) House currently sits at 235-198 D-R. I do'nt know how you thought there was nearly 100 more , unless you're including the senate too, but the question at hand was stirctly house.

2) There's always been way more registered dems than repubs. This isn't anything new, and is really irrelevant here.



How don't you feel the dems can lose that many seats? In midterm elections alone the minority party gained...

2006- dems gained 31,
2002- repubs gained 8,
1998- dems gained 5
1994-repubs gained 54

I would compare these with the presidents approval rating at the time, but I'm pressed for time. I don't think one was ever as low as president obama's. I don't see the repubs winning control, but a net gain of 8 or 10 isn't out of the question.

To blame this on the media and saying it is "a lot worse than it really is" in the eye of the media, is mistaken on your part.
Oh...I read a figure that said it was currently 257 to 178, so that was my bad. It must have been a faulty figure.

A net gain of 8-10 is about what I was advocating, though. Obama has been losing his left base and done nothing to really gain favor with the right, and his numbers are slipping drastically as a result, which is why I said I was sure that Republicans would gain a few seats at least.

But that being said, my point still stands that there are more registered Democrats in the country and last years election should be proof enough that there is a decent base of people behind the Democratic platform. And, surely, you wouldn't be willing to say that the media coverage of the current TEA Party and right-wing movement hasn't greatly overshadowed any sort of Liberal organizing and protesting that has also been going on. What was the story a few weeks back where there was a huge gay pride rally in DC that got almost no coverage compared to the TEA Party gathering a week later that was all over the news. On top of that, right-wing media is in everyone's faces with Limbaugh and Beck, but how many people who just casually follow politics really know about Rachel Maddow? At the moment, the loudest Progressive voice is a guy on Comedy Central.

[xshady121]

Oh...I read a figure that said it was currently 257 to 178, so that was my bad. It must have been a faulty figure.

A net gain of 8-10 is about what I was advocating, though. Obama has been losing his left base and done nothing to really gain favor with the right, and his numbers are slipping drastically as a result, which is why I said I was sure that Republicans would gain a few seats at least.

But that being said, my point still stands that there are more registered Democrats in the country and last years election should be proof enough that there is a decent base of people behind the Democratic platform. And, surely, you wouldn't be willing to say that the media coverage of the current TEA Party and right-wing movement hasn't greatly overshadowed any sort of Liberal organizing and protesting that has also been going on. What was the story a few weeks back where there was a huge gay pride rally in DC that got almost no coverage compared to the TEA Party gathering a week later that was all over the news. On top of that, right-wing media is in everyone's faces with Limbaugh and Beck, but how many people who just casually follow politics really know about Rachel Maddow? At the moment, the loudest Progressive voice is a guy on Comedy Central.

What does that have to do with anything though? There's been more registered democrats from the dawn of political parties! That hasn't stopped the repubs from gaining seats. It's an irrelevant figure, one I certainly wouldn't be hanging my hat on.

[rawesome]

What does that have to do with anything though? There's been more registered democrats from the dawn of political parties! That hasn't stopped the repubs from gaining seats. It's an irrelevant figure, one I certainly wouldn't be hanging my hat on.
Considering the amount of people who vote strictly along party lines, and with the Democrats having a decent enough advantage in the House, I'd say it is a potentially important figure. Certainly it may not mean anything, but it should also be taken into consideration. Especially in a topic that asks for pure speculation.

[xshady121]

Considering the amount of people who vote strictly along party lines, and with the Democrats having a decent enough advantage in the House, I'd say it is a potentially important figure. Certainly it may not mean anything, but it should also be taken into consideration. Especially in a topic that asks for pure speculation.

Interesting you brought this up. I have a graphic of voters voting along party lines since the 1930s. The dems did so about 70% of the time up until the 70s (which is obvious, due to the solid south being democratic) while the repubs never voted less than 90% along party lines. The dems number improved afterwards, but still isn't as high as the republican one.

I'll scan it when I get back to school-- it's in a textbook and I'm at home now.


If you used "there are more registered democrats than republicans" then the repubs would never win an election. Ever. That's not the case, it's just an irrelevant statistic.

[rawesome]

Interesting you brought this up. I have a graphic of voters voting along party lines since the 1930s. The dems did so about 70% of the time up until the 70s (which is obvious, due to the solid south being democratic) while the repubs never voted less than 90% along party lines. The dems number improved afterwards, but still isn't as high as the republican one.

I'll scan it when I get back to school-- it's in a textbook and I'm at home now.


If you used "there are more registered democrats than republicans" then the repubs would never win an election. Ever. That's not the case, it's just an irrelevant statistic.
I get your point, but what I'm saying is that as this thread is asking us to make an educated guess, why would I just assume that a bunch of Democrats won't vote along party lines. Really, the topic of this thread at hand is essentially how will Independents and moderates react to the last year in politics. Obviously, Obama's numbers are down, but you also have to take into account the growing fringe base of the Republican Party, which is also a turn off to voters. If they keep shoving people like Palin down the moderates throats, they're not going to get votes (I understand she isn't running for Congress, but she appears to be the poster girl for the "Conservative base" that the media keeps talking about).

I recognize and concede that not every Dem is going to vote along party lines, but I don't see how either of us could say that it is an absolute if they will or will not right now, so it is important to note the fact that there are more Democrats.

[Josh Weinstein]

I'm anticipating alot of Republican victories. I won't be surprised if Chris Dodd loses his Senate seat based on all the public opposition in Connecticut. Nonetheless, I'll be voting down the Democratic party line in November.

[saysmydoctor]

It's not an irrelevant statistic, it's a contributing one. To say it's unimportant is pretty damn naive.

[GuitarR0cker1]

I'm thinking the Democrats will lose anywhere between 15 and 30 seats in 2010.

They'll definitely lose these seats:
ID-1
CO-4
NM-2
AL-2
TN-8
TN-6
LA-3
VA-5
VA-4
OH-1
MD-1

They'll gain these seats for sure though:
DE-AL
IL-10
LA-2

[Machu505]

I'm thinking the Democrats will lose anywhere between 15 and 30 seats in 2010.

They'll definitely lose these seats:
ID-1
CO-4
NM-2
AL-2
TN-8
TN-6
LA-3
VA-5
VA-4
OH-1
MD-1

They'll gain these seats for sure though:
DE-AL
IL-10
LA-2
The Democrats don't have VA-04 to begin with and I have faith in the nice people of VA-05.

And we will take WV-02 or die trying.

[GuitarR0cker1]

The Democrats don't have VA-04 to begin with and I have faith in the nice people of VA-05.
Whoops I meant VA-2. I don't know Perriello is pretty liberal for his district and in that part of Virginia hatred for Obama is pretty fierce. Perriello could win if the Republicans get teabagged by a decent third part candidate, but other than that I just don't see Perriello surviving. He barely won because of Obama's effect on turnout in Charlottesville and among blacks.

[grantton]

lots of good opinions, i was ecpecting something like what the most recent poster said about 15 to 30 going to the republicans. im good with states and who they normally support for president and which are the "swing states" but not so good with individual seats. we do it a bit different in canada, the american system works better but ours is way more exciting haha