Obama losing in the polls...

[Tito Jr.]

Gallup:
48% to 45%

This is scary stuff.

[Skadrist]

sauce?

[saysmydoctor]

You mean...McCain gained in the polls. Obama's been hovering at 48 to 50 for the past two weeks.

[theliftedlorax8]

Rasmussen (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll) is reporting a 46%-46% tie, 48%-48% if "leaners" are included.

[&IllBeTheReason]

Kerry all over again.

[benjammun]

Gallup, CNN, New York Times polls have a 100% margin of error in the polls, they cater almost directly to business interests. It would only be counter-intuitivel for them to present information that doesn't reflect interests, but that applies to major media outlets in general.

[fuller]

Doesn't matter. Look at the voter registrations in key states so far. Mondale/Ferraro were up 3% after the Dem Convention, that turned out well.

[mattybobviously]

Don't put a lot of stalk in it, get on the ground and do what you can. I just got back from a day of canvassing in New Hampshire, these people love Joe Biden and are ready for change, even if they're not completely sold on the guy who is supposed to bring it.

[lukenelson]

I will personally shove a bullet into McCain's fucking skull if he wins.

I got dibbs on Palin.

[alaskan]

I will personally shove a bullet into McCain's fucking skull if he wins.
how patriotic of you

[firewater]

wasn't obama leading after the dem convention? It makes sense that McCain is leading after the Rep convention as well. We have to wait at least a week or two to get accurate results.

[_jonas]

Obama will totally have it in the bag after the debates start up

[benjammun]

Don't put a lot of stalk in it, get on the ground and do what you can. I just got back from a day of canvassing in New Hampshire, these people love Joe Biden and are ready for change, even if they're not completely sold on the guy who is supposed to bring it.

Sen. Biden and change is a pretty funny pairing, in fact, about as far away as you can get from it without voting GOP.

But these polls mean next to nothing and shouldn't cause any alarm one way or another. Just look at the difference in number between an entire spectrum of polls, this is the PR industry, a multi-billion dollar enterprise, they know who to poll when they want certain results. Do they offer demographics to go along with such conclusive evidence? Doubtful.

[LastPlaceRocks]

Well the man is leading the Electoral College, which is what matters last time I checked.

I will personally shove a bullet into McCain's fucking skull if he wins.
I doubt it, but at least you won't have to deal with gun control if the GOP stays in power.

[Jason Tate]

Polls won't matter for a week - but it will re-energize the Obama camp and supporters, which is good.

[loveisdead]

Obama will totally have it in the bag after the debates start up
How do you say that? Obama hasn't shown one sign that he thinks well on his feet. Hillary beat him in nearly every debate, and he was below par at Saddleback.

[Jason Tate]

How do you say that? Obama hasn't shown one sign that he thinks well on his feet. Hillary beat him in nearly every debate, and he was below par at Saddleback.
Yeah, but McCain was worse ... hahaha, if he gets frazzled at all (McCain) it's over. Or he'll just say "I don't know" a few hundred times.

[MyWorldEntire]

It's going to be a very interesting election, that's for sure.

[incredulous]

It's going to be a very interesting election, that's for sure.
Yeah, people say that, but it's an ominous kind of interesting. More like agitating.

[CloseToShore]

Yeah, but McCain was worse ... hahaha, if he gets frazzled at all (McCain) it's over. Or he'll just say "I don't know" a few hundred times.

I'm going with him sitting there, staring into space, and rubbing his chin for a few minutes before answering "I don't know" first.

[ghostyouare]

You mean...McCain gained in the polls. Obama's been hovering at 48 to 50 for the past two weeks.
technically if McCain gains enough to where he leads, then obama is losing, i know, its a real head scratcher.

[GiggsOho]

These polls are not an issue right now. No one under 30 owns a landline. And its after the GOP convention. This is expected.

[RedWineSheets]

Its all about the electoral college, which for the dems this time, seems to be a good thing.

[SoggY ThE OnE]

Seriously?
There is NO hope for John McCain and Republicans in 2008. Sorry but a 25% approval rating has caused most americans to lose all faith for the GOP.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/custom/2006/02/02/CU2006020201345.html

[The Affliction]

how patriotic of you
Only an idiot sticks to the term 'patriot.'
Every country and every person is patriotic about what they believe in.
How ethnocentric of you.

[saysmydoctor]

Technically if McCain gains enough to where he leads, then Obama is losing, i know, it's a real head scratcher.
Fixed.

And also, at the time the post was made, Obama was still ahead in the Gallup by three points. Kindly shut the fuck up and get off the internet Trevor.

[saysmydoctor]

Only an idiot sticks to the term 'patriot.'
Every country and every person is patriotic about what they believe in.
How ethnocentric of you.
While I still think that guy is an idiot, you used ethnocentric completely out of context.

[Machu505]

Michael Dukakis had a 17 point lead coming out of his convention. Polls right now don't matter.

[wesgemm08]

I am not paying attention to any of the national polls until they show me the demographics of the sampled population of their daily polls.

[Jason Tate]

http://news.yahoo.com/election/2008/dashboard

Now split at 250 each.

[saysmydoctor]

Look at how close Virginia, Ohio, and Nevada are. Holy shit.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/politico/20080907/pl_politico/13222

:wallbash:

[LastPlaceRocks]

If that's the case, then Obama wins, because he should have Delaware, DC (easily), Maryland, Vermont and Hawaii. That'd put him at 273 without having to worry about West Virginia. But at the same time, there are a few very close races right now.

[Jason Tate]

Look at how close Virginia, Ohio, and Nevada are. Holy shit.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/politico/20080907/pl_politico/13222

:wallbash:
And here's the thing ... these are the news stories out everywhere ... none back or responding from the Obama camp. None explaining his positions.

This isn't good. At all.

[Jason Tate]

If that's the case, then Obama wins, because he should have Delaware, DC (easily), Maryland, Vermont and Hawaii. That'd put him at 273 without having to worry about West Virginia. But at the same time, there are a few very close races right now.
That's if he holds Colorado.

[LastPlaceRocks]

Hence there being a few close races that could shift the balance. Right now I'm just going off the data that Yahoo has at the moment and adding the tendencies of the states they don't have data for.

[Jason Tate]

Hence there being a few close races that could shift the balance. Right now I'm just going off the data that Yahoo has at the moment and adding the tendencies of the states they don't have data for.
Yeah, agree.

It's going to be very, very close.

[wesgemm08]

Here's some information from a landline poll conducted in Indiana recently...

24. What is your age?
24. VOTER AGE
18-29 Years 7%
30-44 Years 23%
45-59 Years 35%
60 & Over 34%

13. In a General Election for President held today, who would you favor between (ROTATE ORDER) John McCain and Barack Obama? (IF UNDECIDED, ASK…) Even though you are uncertain about your vote, which candidate would it be if you just had to say (ROTATE ORDER) John McCain or Barack Obama?
13. PRESIDENTIAL TRIAL HEAT
Vote John McCain 43%
Lean John McCain 2%
Undecided 11%
Lean Barack Obama 2%
Vote Barack Obama 41%
Total John McCain 45%
Total Barack Obama 43%


Only 30% of the sample population used in the poll was between the age of 18-44.. This is why I find these polls to be pretty meaningless. Is 34% of the voting population in November going to be 60+ years of age? I doubt it.

http://www.howeypolitics.com/2008/09/04/howey-gauge-poll-toplines-aug-29-30/

edit: It says in this poll they ask at the beginning of the phone call to speak to the youngest male in the household old enough to vote.

[wesgemm08]

To add to my last post, Here's figures from the 2004 presidential election

Voter Demographics

Age

18–29 years old 17%

30-44 years old 29%

45–59 years old 30%

60 years or older 24%

[LastPlaceRocks]

Here's some information from a landline poll conducted in Indiana recently...

24. What is your age?
24. VOTER AGE
18-29 Years 7%
30-44 Years 23%
45-59 Years 35%
60 & Over 34%

13. In a General Election for President held today, who would you favor between (ROTATE ORDER) John McCain and Barack Obama? (IF UNDECIDED, ASK…) Even though you are uncertain about your vote, which candidate would it be if you just had to say (ROTATE ORDER) John McCain or Barack Obama?
13. PRESIDENTIAL TRIAL HEAT
Vote John McCain 43%
Lean John McCain 2%
Undecided 11%
Lean Barack Obama 2%
Vote Barack Obama 41%
Total John McCain 45%
Total Barack Obama 43%


Only 30% of the sample population used in the poll was between the age of 18-44.. This is why I find these polls to be pretty meaningless. Is 34% of the voting population in November going to be 60+ years of age? I doubt it.

http://www.howeypolitics.com/2008/09/04/howey-gauge-poll-toplines-aug-29-30/

edit: It says in this poll they ask at the beginning of the phone call to speak to the youngest male in the household old enough to vote.
No, it won't be 34%, but if I remember correctly 2004 was somewhere around 25%. The elderly do come out and vote in droves.
EDIT: Guess it was 24%. Didn't see that posted when I first replied.

[Adeniz19]

this just shows how crucial the young vote will be this time around and it seems that obama has really rallied them behind him.

[mattybobviously]

I saw my state's name up above, I don't know if there's information up here that suggests there is any sort of a race but we are easily the safest state in the country for Barack, there is no way he will not win here, should certainly receive AT LEAST a 10% win here, but possibly twice that

[Siren Silently]

Yes Cali will be an enormous landslide for the Dems too.

[Tito Jr.]

The Republican's know how to campaign better than they can govern. This election is getting scarier and scarier. I can't believe how many straight up lies are being told on the side of the Republicans. I think there should be some sort of rule about lying where if you lie 3 times you are automatically disqualified. Obama would have won in May.

[benjammun]

Wrong: FISA, Public finanacing, Single-payer healthcare,

[loveisdead]

Wrong: FISA, Public finanacing, Single-payer healthcare,
He changed. He didn't lie about McCain's stances and voting record.

[Justin_stacy]

http://media.gallup.com/poll/graphs/080909Subgroups2_njdld9kd.gif

gallups got him (mccain) up by 15 points among independents which of all the numbers coming out favoring McCain will have the most impact on shaping the electoral college if it holds.

[driftsandpulls]

If Palin and McCain are the Republicans' saviors, then something is indeed awry.
When the time comes for John McCain and Barack Obama to share a stage and talk about the issues, when it's time for Joe Biden and Sarah Palin to share a stage together, those independent voters will know the truth after that. And it won't be in the McCain Camp's favor.

[GiggsOho]

LOL.
http://www.oliverwillis.com/img/ZZ7A3474E6.jpg

[Adeniz19]

cnn's poll of polls had obama down 1 point today after being down 2 yesterday.

[benjammun]

He changed. He didn't lie about McCain's stances and voting record.

You have to admit that's quite the double standard. Obama can 'change' while McCain simply lies, or 'flip-flops' to use the media's preferred nomenclature. Call it as it is: both candidates have 'changed' their positions on many topics, as does every other politician in history, though McCain takes it to a whole new level.

[The Affliction]

If Palin and McCain are the Republicans' saviors, then something is indeed awry.
When the time comes for John McCain and Barack Obama to share a stage and talk about the issues, when it's time for Joe Biden and Sarah Palin to share a stage together, those independent voters will know the truth after that. And it won't be in the McCain Camp's favor.
I cannot fucking wait.

[Tito Jr.]

I'm just curious what the fuck half of America is thinking.

I can at least understand why the Republicans who are rich and selfish are voting on the basis of keeping their money safe. That makes sense. However, the overwhelming majority of Americans are in the middle class, and McCain literally does absolutely nothing for you. What are you middle and lower class Americans who are voting for McCain thinking?

I mean, someone please explain? Is this about protecting your political party? I'm literally baffled. Someone, please, educate me.

[benjammun]

I'm just curious what the fuck half of America is thinking.

I can at least understand why the Republicans who are rich and selfish are voting on the basis of keeping their money safe. That makes sense. However, the overwhelming majority of Americans are in the middle class, and McCain literally does absolutely nothing for you. What are you middle and lower class Americans who are voting for McCain thinking?

I mean, someone please explain? Is this about protecting your political party? I'm literally baffled. Someone, please, educate me.

Billion-dollar public relations industry, conservative think-tanks (Heritage, Project for a New American Century), the religious right? Something like 25% of the electorate are right-wing evangelists, the same 25% that believe 9/11 was a fulfillment of scripture and the same 25% that Karl Rove figured could be herded so effectively in 2000 and 2004 with 'cultural issues.' And that's leaving out the Catholic vote, though McCain hasn't done as well as Bush did with them.

[The Affliction]

I'm counting the days until the electorate's old age withers that 25% away into nothingness.

Out with ignorance, in with at least the somewhat uninformed. At least newer generations are getting better. Sheesh.

[The Affliction]

And that's leaving out the Catholic vote, though McCain hasn't done as well as Bush did with them.

Biden accepts Catholic church view that life begins at conception. That should at least get some of the Catholics who were unsure with Barack's ideas on that. Also, technically evolution is compatible with Catholicism, so supporting stem cell research, I don't think, should deflate their chances of picking up Catholic voters.

[benjammun]

Yeah, I could see Obama picking up some of the more liberal Catholic vote. All he would need is a little, though that Saddlebeck thing probably didn't help his chances.

[Mitch]

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/09/09/2360240.htm?section=world

Means nothing, obviously, but some of you may like to send it around.

[Jason Tate]

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/09/09/2360240.htm?section=world

Means nothing, obviously, but some of you may like to send it around.
In my opinion it means a lot.

[Adeniz19]

ARG and NBC/Wall Street latest polls both have obama back up 1%

[Trainsaw]

In my opinion it means a lot.

agreed. Im tired of being a joke to every other country in the world. There was a good opinion article on guardian i had read today, i'll post it when I get off work. Its a nice read

[I'm DC]

I don't know how Obama losing is such a shock?

As much as I don't want it to happen, I'm almost positive he will lose.

[Jason Tate]

I don't know how Obama losing is such a shock?

As much as I don't want it to happen, I'm almost positive he will lose.
It's hard to run above the fray when people lie ... over and over again. And your responses get 1/2 the coverage as their attacks do.

[Jason Tate]

The bias our media has towards Obama is off the scale. Which is good because I and everyone else wants him to win.
Our media is scared. No one wants to give an opinion and is too afraid of appearing partisan. Except Fox, they do all they can to be right-wing - and they have a very large audience.

[Trainsaw]

here's the article, conveys alot of my feelings on the election

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/sep/10/uselections2008.barackobama

[nfgrocker16]

A good point was brought up to me in that when you look at a lot of polls you have to ask yourself, "who are they polling?" Lets say you poll 100 registered voters, 50 republicans and 50 democrats. The poll will most likely read somewhere around 50-50. Now, if you were to take a random poll of 100 american's, you'd probably see a more lopsided figure, most likely in favor of Obama. One fact that's interesting is that democratic voter registration has risen greatly while republican voter registration has stayed at about the same.

Since 2000 the number of registered voters under the age of 30 has risen over 100%. A record number of delegates under the age of 30 showed up to the DNC while the story was pretty much opposite for the RNC.

2 things, the younger people of our country aren't getting polled, mostly because we don't use land lines. Secondly the polls aren't targeting random american's. They usually try to poll half and half, making for a more dramatic race then it probably will be when the day is done.

[eMart]

As if the horseshit media wasn't bad enough, now we have to worry about the pollsters not doing their job right either? Finally we have an answer as to why McCain took a sudden lead in the polls. The major pollsters have been over sampling the number of Republican respondents in their polls.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/9/9/18192/04144/290/592615

[Jason Tate]

As if the horseshit media wasn't bad enough, now we have to worry about the pollsters not doing their job right either? Finally we have an answer as to why McCain took a sudden lead in the polls. The major pollsters have been over sampling the number of Republican respondents in their polls.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/9/9/18192/04144/290/592615
Shit.

[saysmydoctor]

GALLUP, SAY IT ISN'T SO.

Oh wait, you've done this before.

[Adeniz19]

As if the horseshit media wasn't bad enough, now we have to worry about the pollsters not doing their job right either? Finally we have an answer as to why McCain took a sudden lead in the polls. The major pollsters have been over sampling the number of Republican respondents in their polls.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/9/9/18192/04144/290/592615
it's fine by me if they want to put mccain up in the polls. it'll just get more democrats/obama supporters out there to vote

[eMart]

It's just stupid the way they're trying to make this into a horse race by falsifying information in order to keep the American public "excited" to get their ratings up. I do agree with Lino that at least this will motivate Obama supporters to get out there and and get more people to vote for Obama.

[Adeniz19]

new CNN polls by state

Michigan
Obama- 45
McCain- 42

Missouri
Obama- 44
McCain- 48

New Hampshire
Obama- 48
McCain- 43

Virginia
Obama- 43
McCain- 49

[Justin_stacy]

rasmussen has similar numbers, basically all but Ohio of the so-called 'swing states' is still up for grabs.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/fox_rasmussen_polling/fox_rasmussen_swing_state_polling
McCain
46% (49%) co
48% (48%) fl
51% (48%) oh
45% (45%) pn
49% (48%) va

Obama
49% (48%) co
48% (46%) fl
44% (43%) oh
47% (43%) pn
47% (47%) va

( % ) pre convention numbers.

[Jason Tate]

rasmussen has similar numbers, basically all but Ohio of the so-called 'swing states' is still up for grabs.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/fox_rasmussen_polling/fox_rasmussen_swing_state_polling
McCain
46% (49%) co
48% (48%) fl
51% (48%) oh
45% (45%) pn
49% (48%) va

Obama
49% (48%) co
48% (46%) fl
44% (43%) oh
47% (43%) pn
47% (47%) va

( % ) pre convention numbers.
Their numbers are no where near the other polls for Ohio. It's within 3 on every other poll I've seen.

[Tito Jr.]

I don't know how Obama losing is such a shock?

As much as I don't want it to happen, I'm almost positive he will lose. Thank the Lord, we have a psychic.

[I'm DC]

Thank the Lord, we have a psychic.
HAHAHA

[Adeniz19]

latest fox news poll

McCain- 45
Obama- 42
unsure- 14

and fox news officially doesnt know how to add

[Jason Tate]

latest fox news poll

McCain- 45
Obama- 42
unsure- 14

and fox news officially doesnt know how to add
Why does anyone pay attention to Fox's polls? Hahaha.

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh08gen.htm

[GuitarR0cker1]

This is overall votes right? Who is winning in terms of states?
http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2181/2848642523_cdac800285_o.png
According to FiveThirtyEight, McCain. I would say McCain would be doing better than this map. He would probably also win New Meixco, and Pennsylvania would be a tossup. Maybe even Michigan would be a tossup.

[Jason Tate]

http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2181/2848642523_cdac800285_o.png
According to FiveThirtyEight, McCain. I would say McCain would be doing better than this map. He would probably also win New Meixco, and Pennsylvania would be a tossup. Maybe even Michigan would be a tossup.
No.

[GuitarR0cker1]

No.
Why not? Obama's last poll at Pennsylvania shows him leading at +3, with almost a tie with McCain. I think it would be close, but still probably an Obama win.

Never mind about Michigan.

[loveisdead]

Why not? Obama's last poll at Pennsylvania shows him leading at +3, with almost a tie with McCain. I think it would be close, but still probably an Obama win.

Never mind about Michigan.
http://news.yahoo.com/election/2008/dashboard;_ylt=AihfhII7PcMqVU.BGpFA BuVsnwcF

It's very close, but Obama should be able to pull out enough states. Polls will change in his favor from here on out.

[odelay]

new CNN polls by state

Michigan
Obama- 45
McCain- 42

Missouri
Obama- 44
McCain- 48

New Hampshire
Obama- 48
McCain- 43

Virginia
Obama- 43
McCain- 49
Since I dorm at my school, I'm allowed to register to vote for in the state of Virginia. So, I changed my voter registration from New York (which is a dominant blue state) to Virginia, hoping I can make somewhat of a change. One of my professors was in a building handing out voter registration forms to people so we could have more registered.

[loveisdead]

Since I dorm at my school, I'm allowed to register to vote for in the state of Virginia. So, I changed my voter registration from New York (which is a dominant blue state) to Virginia, hoping I can make somewhat of a change. One of my professors was in a building handing out voter registration forms to people so we could have more registered.
Professors at my school are doing that too. They all are so liberal, which is cool, but I wish they wouldn't let the entire class know it.

[GuitarR0cker1]

http://news.yahoo.com/election/2008/dashboard;_ylt=AihfhII7PcMqVU.BGpFA BuVsnwcF

It's very close, but Obama should be able to pull out enough states. Polls will change in his favor from here on out.
I agree, I don't think it will be too close on election day either. I think that Obama should win the popular vote at around 51-48 or so.

[bluecrunchy]

These polls don't really matter that much to me right now. We'll see how things go after the debates begin.

[odelay]

Professors at my school are doing that too. They all are so liberal, which is cool, but I wish they wouldn't let the entire class know it. Same here. The professor who was handing out the applications even mentioned that he works for the Obama campaign.

[driftsandpulls]

It's cool.
When Obama adds millions of new voters into the mix by November he'll have it down.

edit: SEP. 26 is when the polls will matter more.

[Tito Jr.]

The polls are starting to harden. :/

[Jason Tate]

The polls are starting to harden. :/
Doesn't matter.

[Adeniz19]

latest newsweek has them dead even

[Tito Jr.]

Doesn't matter. Of course it matters. A tie is not good enough when the stakes are this high.

[Jason Tate]

Of course it matters. A tie is not good enough when the stakes are this high.
The electoral votes matter - not some national poll.

[loveisdead]

The polls don't mean shit right now. The meat of this election hasn't come yet. After the debates we'll talk about polls.

[ActionActionFan]

The polls really don't matter for another month.

[Tito Jr.]

The electoral votes matter - not some national poll. And what do you think they use to determine the projected electoral votes?

[Jason Tate]

And what do you think they use to determine the projected electoral votes?
Not national polls.

[Tito Jr.]

Not national polls. Wrong.



The CNN Electoral Map is based on analysis from the CNN Political Unit
It takes into account a number of factors: polling, state voting trends and more
It will be updated regularly as the campaign develops over time

[nfgrocker16]

Obama no longer losing in the polls according to MSNBC. does that render this thread dead?

rhyming is my strong point

[Jason Tate]

Wrong.



The CNN Electoral Map is based on analysis from the CNN Political Unit
It takes into account a number of factors: polling, state voting trends and more
It will be updated regularly as the campaign develops over time
You realize what the word "national" means, right?

[Tito Jr.]

You realize what the word "national" means, right? Oh no Jason, you got me there.

I made the claim, "the polls are hardening." I did not say "national" polls. You did. I thought when you said "national polls" you were reffering to all the polling done throughout the nation. I did not think you were just talking about one particular poll. That's why I called you out by saying they use "polls" to determine the projected electoral votes.

So you're arguing with yourself.

[Jason Tate]

Oh no Jason, you got me there.

I made the claim, "the polls are hardening." I did not say "national" polls. You did.

So you're arguing with yourself.
:yawn:

http://www.absolutepunk.net/showthread.php?p=20575181#post20575 181

[Tito Jr.]

:yawn:

http://www.absolutepunk.net/showthread.php?p=20575181#post20575 181 Argue with yourself some more.

[Posthardcore]

good

[Tito Jr.]

good Way to add something to the thread.

[Tito Jr.]

This election will come down to Ohio and Colorado, both of which Obama is trailing in right now. I wish I could just quit my job and go over there to help campaign. This is absolutely terrifying.

[Jason Tate]

This election will come down to Ohio and Colorado, both of which Obama is trailing in right now. I wish I could just quit my job and go over there to help campaign. This is absolutely terrifying.
He is not trailing in Colorado.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/co/colorado_mccain_vs_obama-546.html

[Tito Jr.]

He is not trailing in Colorado.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/co/colorado_mccain_vs_obama-546.html The polls in which is up by a few points are unfortunately out of date.

Rasmussen Reports on 9/14: 48%-46% in favor of McCain

[Jason Tate]

The polls in which is up by a few points are unfortunately out of date.

Rasmussen Reports on 9/14: 48%-46% in favor of McCain
Why are you reading Fox News polls?

[Adeniz19]

The polls in which is up by a few points are unfortunately out of date.

Rasmussen Reports on 9/14: 48%-46% in favor of McCainit might be the most recent but you can't just go by one poll

[Tito Jr.]

Why are you reading Fox News polls? It's also a Rasmussen poll.

[Tito Jr.]

it might be the most recent but you can't just go by one poll Then we might as well look at a poll from last month so we can all share a pseudo sigh of relief.

[Adeniz19]

Then we might as well look at a poll from last month so we can all share a pseudo sigh of relief.
yea, that makes sense

do you really believe mccain gained a whole 5 percentage points from the 10th-14th?

[theguy77]

fuck pre-debate politics. here is a summary of those speeches: "i am awesome and experienced and i have morals. the other guy is a douchebag. vote for me."

[The Affliction]

don't forget, "i like oreos, so i am both pro-black and pro-white!"

[splitsecond]

Would someone explain to me where the logic is in saying that Obama and Biden will undoubtedly pull ahead come debate time? Did you all miss the part where McCain/Palin's speeches made a much more obvious boost to their numbers than the Obama/Biden speeches? Are you just basing this on your own personal beliefs and the naive mindset that the majority of Americans agree with you? Do you have a crystal ball or a DeLorean that is assisting you in seeing the future? Do you STILL not remember the 2004 election, when Democrats were saying the same things about John Kerry?

[Jason Tate]

Would someone explain to me where the logic is in saying that Obama and Biden will undoubtedly pull ahead come debate time? Did you all miss the part where McCain/Palin's speeches made a much more obvious boost to their numbers than the Obama/Biden speeches? Are you just basing this on your own personal beliefs and the naive mindset that the majority of Americans agree with you? Do you have a crystal ball or a DeLorean that is assisting you in seeing the future? Do you STILL not remember the 2004 election, when Democrats were saying the same things about John Kerry?
People are saying wait until after the debates because that's when polls matter, not who will be ahead.

[splitsecond]

No, some people are saying that. But there are definitely several posts in here stating that McCain support will go down after debates, which quite frankly is not something you can predict no matter who you support. I personally think both sides could fuck things up for themselves in the debates with how close this is right now.

[Tito Jr.]

No, some people are saying that. But there are definitely several posts in here stating that McCain support will go down after debates, which quite frankly is not something you can predict no matter who you support. I personally think both sides could fuck things up for themselves in the debates with how close this is right now. There will be no scripts for Palin to read. Biden will make Charlie Gibson look like Diane Sawyer.

[Adeniz19]

No, some people are saying that. But there are definitely several posts in here stating that McCain support will go down after debates, which quite frankly is not something you can predict no matter who you support. I personally think both sides could fuck things up for themselves in the debates with how close this is right now.i think most people's beliefs (at least on this site), is that mccain has no substance or details on the issues so that should benefit obama during the debates.

[wesgemm08]

The polls really don't matter. It just gives the media something to talk about other than the issues at hand. As seen in many of the 2008 primaries, the polling techniques are out-dated and don't give an accurate sample.

[splitsecond]

There will be no scripts for Palin to read. Biden will make Charlie Gibson look like Diane Sawyer.

Or he will say something that he will end up having to put his foot in his mouth about, as he has done many times in the past. He is good if he is controlled, but sometimes his mouth gets him in trouble.

i think most people's beliefs (at least on this site), is that mccain has no substance or details on the issues so that should benefit obama during the debates.

Well, this site in my opinion is an aberration of the general public. The vast majority of the people I associate with or know (people who do not generally side with a party, nor get into heated debates) feel that Obama has no substance, and that this will be apparent in the debates, just like it was with Kerry in 2004. The bottom line is, you can't predict what the debates will do based on your own opinion, or what your friend's opinions are, because it isn't reliable.

The polls really don't matter. It just gives the media something to talk about other than the issues at hand. As seen in many of the 2008 primaries, the polling techniques are out-dated and don't give an accurate sample.

Agreed.

[Tito Jr.]

Or he will say something that he will end up having to put his foot in his mouth about, as he has done many times in the past. He is good if he is controlled, but sometimes his mouth gets him in trouble. He keeps it real.

[splitsecond]

He keeps it real.

I guess that is one way of putting it, and honestly I personally like that about him even though I do not agree with him most of the time. However, a lot of people do not like that sort of thing. People are sensitive.

[Tito Jr.]

I guess that is one way of putting it, and honestly I personally like that about him even though I do not agree with him most of the time. However, a lot of people do not like that sort of thing. People are sensitive. I'd rather have someone speak his mind, then constantly lie to me.

The Republicans have had their chance to make America better for the last 8 years. They failed. If McCain wants to run as an agent of change, then he should be talking about plans that differ from the same old tired failed philosophy of the last eight years. He is a sham. And his VP is a gimmick. Biden will expose Palin for the novice politician that she is and these threads will be filled with YouTube videos of Palin getting Bidened.

[incredulous]

I'd rather have someone speak his mind, then constantly lie to me.

The Republicans have had their chance to make America better for the last 8 years. They failed. If McCain wants to run as an agent of change, then he should be talking about plans that differ from the same old tired failed philosophy of the last eight years. He is a sham. And his VP is a gimmick. Biden will expose Palin for the novice politician that she is and these threads will be filled with YouTube videos of Palin getting Bidened.
I like the use of Biden as a verb, and he can definitely trounce her, but the many unflattering facts about Palin don't seem to dissuade her supporters. I think it will come down to who distinguishes himself in the presidential debates. I think that man will be Obama, because he doesn't tend to get flustered as easily as McCain.

[Kid B]

Debates obviously are key. I can't wait to see how it plays out.

[Tito Jr.]

I like the use of Biden as a verb, and he can definitely trounce her, but the many unflattering facts about Palin don't seem to dissuade her supporters. I think it will come down to who distinguishes himself in the presidential debates. I think that man will be Obama, because he doesn't tend to get flustered as easily as McCain. Smart young lady you are.

[Tito Jr.]

He is not trailing in Colorado.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/co/colorado_mccain_vs_obama-546.html

Zogby Interactive’s Obama vs McCain CO Poll, conducted from Sep 9 to Sep12, showed McCain leading Obama by 2 % points — 47.5% to 45.5% among the registered voters of Colorado.

[driftsandpulls]

http://www.gallup.com/poll/110446/Gallup-Daily-Obama-47-McCain-45.aspx

and Obama is leading in all but one major swing state.
I think the polls will revert to a statistical tie in Obama's favor and then after the debates he will shoot up.

[Tito Jr.]

http://www.gallup.com/poll/110446/Gallup-Daily-Obama-47-McCain-45.aspx

and Obama is leading in all but one major swing state.
I think the polls will revert to a statistical tie in Obama's favor and then after the debates he will shoot up.

We are back in business. :)

[Justin_stacy]

http://www.gallup.com/poll/110446/Gallup-Daily-Obama-47-McCain-45.aspx

and Obama is leading in all but one major swing state.
I think the polls will revert to a statistical tie in Obama's favor and then after the debates he will shoot up.

that's not true at all, Rasmussen has him down in Ohio (48/45), Colorado (48/46), Florida (49/44), Virgina (49/47), and tied in Pennsylvania (47). And he's statstically out of play in Missouri. Now none of those numbers are 'drastic,' with the exception of FL maybe, but they don't exactly back up your contention.

I also question the basis for something like "following the debates Obama's numbers will shoot up". Obama's weakest forumn is the one on one debates, and he was awful and came off arrogant in the Democratic primary debates, so I don't see how such confidence is exactly warranted.

[Jason Tate]

that's not true at all, Rasmussen has him down in Ohio (48/45), Colorado (48/46), Florida (49/44), Virgina (49/47), and tied in Pennsylvania (47). And he's statstically out of play in Missouri. Now none of those numbers are 'drastic,' with the exception of FL maybe, but they don't exactly back up your contention.

I also question the basis for something like "following the debates Obama's numbers will shoot up". Obama's weakest forumn is the one on one debates, and he was awful and came off arrogant in the Democratic primary debates, so I don't see how such confidence is exactly warranted.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/#data

[Justin_stacy]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/#data

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/weekly_updates/what_they_told_us_reviewing_last_we ek_s_key_polls

[Jason Tate]

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/weekly_updates/what_they_told_us_reviewing_last_we ek_s_key_polls
I think looking at one poll is absurd.

[Adeniz19]

CNN's Poll of Polls has Obama back up 46-45

[driftsandpulls]

that's not true at all, Rasmussen has him down in Ohio (48/45), Colorado (48/46), Florida (49/44), Virgina (49/47), and tied in Pennsylvania (47). And he's statstically out of play in Missouri. Now none of those numbers are 'drastic,' with the exception of FL maybe, but they don't exactly back up your contention.

I also question the basis for something like "following the debates Obama's numbers will shoot up". Obama's weakest forumn is the one on one debates, and he was awful and came off arrogant in the Democratic primary debates, so I don't see how such confidence is exactly warranted.

He won the Democratic Primary Season, my friend. McCain didn't do well in those debates, either. Using just Rasmussen to tell who is in the lead is crazy, I was going by RCP average of the polls.

When the American people see Sarah Palin and Joe Biden and Barack Obama and John McCain share the stage, we'll know.
Whatever.
I can't wait to talk to you on some date proceeding November 4th, 2008.

[Tito Jr.]

Regarding the polls, I think McCain will have a few points headstart with the undecided group.

I've heard a few pundits (MSNBC, CNN) say both parties think that the "Undecided" will break for McCain - 70 - 30.

These are people who when polled, reveal they are not happy with the current administration, they have been voting for Democrats in different elections this past few years, but when asked who they will be voting for in the general election, they are still "undecided."

They can't bring themselves to vote for Obama, and if he isn't polling at least 48 just before the election, he is in trouble. Of course the independents are incrediblly important, but I'm thinking the first-time voters are going to determine the winner of this election. I know it's a stretch, historically new voters are a small demographic. But the democrats are registering far more new voters than are republicans. If they come out. Obama will win.

[nfgrocker16]

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/09/17/opinion/polls/main4456249.shtml

CBS/New York Times Poll 9/17

Registered Voters: Obama 48% - McCain 43%

Likely Voters: Obama 49% - McCain 44%

Independent Voters: Obama 46% - McCain 41%

Women Voters: Obama 54% - McCain 38% - (Obama was down by 5 points after the RNC)

Which VP is ready to be President?: Sarah Palin 42% - Joe Biden 75%

[Machu505]

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/09/17/opinion/polls/main4456249.shtml
Which VP is ready to be President?: Sarah Palin 42% - Joe Biden 75%

42 + 75 = 117

How does that work? Or am I missing something about the question asked?

[billyboatkid]

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/09/17/opinion/polls/main4456249.shtml

CBS/New York Times Poll 9/17

Registered Voters: Obama 48% - McCain 43%

Likely Voters: Obama 49% - McCain 44%

Independent Voters: Obama 46% - McCain 41%

Women Voters: Obama 54% - McCain 38% - (Obama was down by 5 points after the RNC)

Which VP is ready to be President?: Sarah Palin 42% - Joe Biden 75%

Fact.

[nfgrocker16]

42 + 75 = 117

How does that work? Or am I missing something about the question asked?

75% of 100% of the people polled said Biden was ready to be president.

42% of those same 100% of the people polled said Palin was ready to be president.

It wasn't an either or question.

[Machu505]

75% of 100% of the people polled said Biden was ready to be president.

42% of those same 100% of the people polled said Palin was ready to be president.

It wasn't an either or question.

Ok I see. I retract my comment.

[nfgrocker16]

Ok I see. I retract my comment.

Its all good. I'm in a good mood today because of the fact that Obama's back on top without really having to do anything. McCain's totally losing the election for himself and I think its brilliant on Obama's part that his campaign didn't have to turn to dirty politics and attack ads, even though we've been seeing a lot more lately.

McCain's kind of taken care of all his own negative press himself.

[Justin_stacy]

I think looking at one poll is absurd.

One poll can raise questions on false generalization, but then again so does your link.

[Justin_stacy]

He won the Democratic Primary Season, my friend. McCain didn't do well in those debates, either. Using just Rasmussen to tell who is in the lead is crazy, I was going by RCP average of the polls. .

Rasmussen was only used to discredit your false assertion. Gallup and Zogby also show that he is not leading in all but one so-called swing states. So its not one poll, nor have i ever assert such.

I can't wait to talk to you on some date preceding November 4th, 2008.

Why is that?

[driftsandpulls]

Rasmussen was only used to discredit your false assertion. Gallup and Zogby also show that he is not leading in all but one so-called swing states. So its not one poll, nor have i ever assert such.



Why is that?
To counter, it's silly to speculate using one poll. I was going by the RealClearPoltics.com averages; by what I had seen earlier on there, which did say he was leading in all but Florida.

I remember you saying early on that Obama would lose to McCain. McCain has been running a dirty campaign and it will backfire on him. Oh, but the town hall meetings, like that's an excuse to take the low road and flat out lie to the American People, that doesn't sound like Country First, that's not what America's priority should be right now, and that's not change we can believe in.
This isn't about dividing the nation. It's not about the polls. It's not about the electoral map and it's not about winning or losing. I truly feel in my heart that Obama is in this to move the country forward, and perhaps that's where you and I part ways logically; McCain has gone beyond himself, his campaign has gone beyond who McCain really is and it's sad. The values that are shared by conservative and liberal Americans are what McCain and Palin are dividing in the process of attempting to reach the White House.Quick question, ignore all the pigs and lipstick, tire gauges and jet planes and flagpins and Paris Hilton's, Are McCain and Palin really what this country needs right now? If you truly beleive that, there is nothing I can say or do to convince you because that's the America you want. But that's not the America I want, that's not the America Biden wants, that's not the America millions want, but in November, the time will come for America to decide the America it wants and I think that America will be Barack Obama.
But that's just me.

[wesgemm08]

One poll can raise questions on false generalization, but then again so does your link.

One poll can also tell you Obama is up 13% in New Hampshire the night before the primary.

Spoiler alert: Hillary won the primary by almost 4%