Russian Professor Predicts End Of U.S.

[Nathan Lint]

Don't know if this has been posted anywhere.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123051100709638419.html

MOSCOW -- For a decade, Russian academic Igor Panarin has been predicting the U.S. will fall apart in 2010. For most of that time, he admits, few took his argument -- that an economic and moral collapse will trigger a civil war and the eventual breakup of the U.S. -- very seriously. Now he's found an eager audience: Russian state media.

In recent weeks, he's been interviewed as much as twice a day about his predictions. "It's a record," says Prof. Panarin. "But I think the attention is going to grow even stronger."
Prof. Panarin, 50 years old, is not a fringe figure. A former KGB analyst, he is dean of the Russian Foreign Ministry's academy for future diplomats. He is invited to Kremlin receptions, lectures students, publishes books, and appears in the media as an expert on U.S.-Russia relations.
But it's his bleak forecast for the U.S. that is music to the ears of the Kremlin, which in recent years has blamed Washington for everything from instability in the Middle East to the global financial crisis. Mr. Panarin's views also fit neatly with the Kremlin's narrative that Russia is returning to its rightful place on the world stage after the weakness of the 1990s, when many feared that the country would go economically and politically bankrupt and break into separate territories.
A polite and cheerful man with a buzz cut, Mr. Panarin insists he does not dislike Americans. But he warns that the outlook for them is dire.
"There's a 55-45% chance right now that disintegration will occur," he says. "One could rejoice in that process," he adds, poker-faced. "But if we're talking reasonably, it's not the best scenario -- for Russia." Though Russia would become more powerful on the global stage, he says, its economy would suffer because it currently depends heavily on the dollar and on trade with the U.S.
Mr. Panarin posits, in brief, that mass immigration, economic decline, and moral degradation will trigger a civil war next fall and the collapse of the dollar. Around the end of June 2010, or early July, he says, the U.S. will break into six pieces -- with Alaska reverting to Russian control.
In addition to increasing coverage in state media, which are tightly controlled by the Kremlin, Mr. Panarin's ideas are now being widely discussed among local experts. He presented his theory at a recent roundtable discussion at the Foreign Ministry. The country's top international relations school has hosted him as a keynote speaker. During an appearance on the state TV channel Rossiya, the station cut between his comments and TV footage of lines at soup kitchens and crowds of homeless people in the U.S. The professor has also been featured on the Kremlin's English-language propaganda channel, Russia Today.
Mr. Panarin's apocalyptic vision "reflects a very pronounced degree of anti-Americanism in Russia today," says Vladimir Pozner, a prominent TV journalist in Russia. "It's much stronger than it was in the Soviet Union."
Mr. Pozner and other Russian commentators and experts on the U.S. dismiss Mr. Panarin's predictions. "Crazy ideas are not usually discussed by serious people," says Sergei Rogov, director of the government-run Institute for U.S. and Canadian Studies, who thinks Mr. Panarin's theories don't hold water.
Mr. Panarin's résumé includes many years in the Soviet KGB, an experience shared by other top Russian officials. His office, in downtown Moscow, shows his national pride, with pennants on the wall bearing the emblem of the FSB, the KGB's successor agency. It is also full of statuettes of eagles; a double-headed eagle was the symbol of czarist Russia.
The professor says he began his career in the KGB in 1976. In post-Soviet Russia, he got a doctorate in political science, studied U.S. economics, and worked for FAPSI, then the Russian equivalent of the U.S. National Security Agency. He says he did strategy forecasts for then-President Boris Yeltsin, adding that the details are "classified."
In September 1998, he attended a conference in Linz, Austria, devoted to information warfare, the use of data to get an edge over a rival. It was there, in front of 400 fellow delegates, that he first presented his theory about the collapse of the U.S. in 2010.
"When I pushed the button on my computer and the map of the United States disintegrated, hundreds of people cried out in surprise," he remembers. He says most in the audience were skeptical. "They didn't believe me."
At the end of the presentation, he says many delegates asked him to autograph copies of the map showing a dismembered U.S.
He based the forecast on classified data supplied to him by FAPSI analysts, he says. He predicts that economic, financial and demographic trends will provoke a political and social crisis in the U.S. When the going gets tough, he says, wealthier states will withhold funds from the federal government and effectively secede from the union. Social unrest up to and including a civil war will follow. The U.S. will then split along ethnic lines, and foreign powers will move in.
California will form the nucleus of what he calls "The Californian Republic," and will be part of China or under Chinese influence. Texas will be the heart of "The Texas Republic," a cluster of states that will go to Mexico or fall under Mexican influence. Washington, D.C., and New York will be part of an "Atlantic America" that may join the European Union. Canada will grab a group of Northern states Prof. Panarin calls "The Central North American Republic." Hawaii, he suggests, will be a protectorate of Japan or China, and Alaska will be subsumed into Russia.
"It would be reasonable for Russia to lay claim to Alaska; it was part of the Russian Empire for a long time." A framed satellite image of the Bering Strait that separates Alaska from Russia like a thread hangs from his office wall. "It's not there for no reason," he says with a sly grin.
Interest in his forecast revived this fall when he published an article in Izvestia, one of Russia's biggest national dailies. In it, he reiterated his theory, called U.S. foreign debt "a pyramid scheme," and predicted China and Russia would usurp Washington's role as a global financial regulator.
Americans hope President-elect Barack Obama "can work miracles," he wrote. "But when spring comes, it will be clear that there are no miracles."
The article prompted a question about the White House's reaction to Prof. Panarin's forecast at a December news conference. "I'll have to decline to comment," spokeswoman Dana Perino said amid much laughter.
For Prof. Panarin, Ms. Perino's response was significant. "The way the answer was phrased was an indication that my views are being listened to very carefully," he says.
The professor says he's convinced that people are taking his theory more seriously. People like him have forecast similar cataclysms before, he says, and been right. He cites French political scientist Emmanuel Todd. Mr. Todd is famous for having rightly forecast the demise of the Soviet Union -- 15 years beforehand. "When he forecast the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1976, people laughed at him," says Prof. Panarin.
http://s.wsj.net/public/resources/images/P1-AO116_RUSPRO_NS_20081228191715.gif


Kind of a crazy theory. I know he's been saying this for 10 years now, but it seems a little farfetched for someone to think this will happen in a little more than a year from now.

Thoughts?

[Lueda Alia]

The states of The Central North-American Republic would be pretty lucky!

I doubt this would happen though. Americans take great pride in being "united" as far as I know. But who knows what will happen in the future?

[Nathan Lint]

The states of The Central North-American Republic would be pretty lucky!

I doubt this would happen though. Americans take great pride in being "united" as far as I know. But who knows what will happen in the future?
I was just saying that. I'd much much rather be under Canadian control rather than mexican or chinese.

[Robototron]

So I kind of ignored that article past the first paragraph because that guy sounds like a bit of a numpty and I'm glad I did. His prediction of which states will split where shows a complete lack of knowledge about American politics, which leads me to believe that Panarin has no idea what he's talking about and just wants to get his name in the news.

[MyWorldEntire]

Fascinating to read, but it will never happen. The level of anti-Americanism is Russia is quite startling though. Stories like this are why I'm seriously considering minoring in Russian History.

[speakhandsforme]

It's plausible, as is any theory that includes premonitions about the political shift of a recognized nation, but unlikely, especially in that specific format. But, hey, if that's what it takes for me to finally be able to say I've visted another country, so be it.

[LastPlaceRocks]

The fact that it's only getting a lot of attention on Russian state-controlled television with the level of anti-Americanism in the country makes it hard to take this seriously.

[jagermeister]

We get Chicago? I'm down.

[jagermeister]

So I kind of ignored that article past the first paragraph because that guy sounds like a bit of a numpty and I'm glad I did. His prediction of which states will split where shows a complete lack of knowledge about American politics, which leads me to believe that Panarin has no idea what he's talking about and just wants to get his name in the news.

The fact that you didn't take the time to read the entire article, but comment on it, leads me to believe that Robototron has no idea what she's talking about and just wants to get her name in the thread.

Seriously??? You've got to read the stuff you're going to comment on. This man has a lot of experience and a lot of credentials so what he said should not just be taken lightly as crazy or scary as it sounds.

[RedWineSheets]

lol @ that map and south carolina possibly joining/ being part of the e.u.:lol:

[wesgemm08]

Interesting read; not going to happen.

[mattybobviously]

Seriously??? You've got to read the stuff you're going to comment on. This man has a lot of experience and a lot of credentials so what he said should not just be taken lightly as crazy or scary as it sounds.
I don't care what your experience is, or what credentials you have, when you propose that the United States is two years away from breaking up, then show an absolutely worthless map in which potential splits are only results of their geographic proximity to other nations... you don't deserve any attention. This logic makes virtually no sense.

[IAmNietzche]

It's plausible, as is any theory that includes premonitions about the political shift of a recognized nation, but unlikely, especially in that specific format. But, hey, if that's what it takes for me to finally be able to say I've visted another country, so be it.
No, it's completely implausible.

If the U.S. were to split and dissolve into Civil War it wouldn't be along ethnic lines it would be along ideological lines. U.S. Nationalism is much too strong for that anyway. The slightest hint of a foreign invasion, even on a fragmented U.S. would immediately rally these feelings of nationalism and garner a fierce military backlash.

[jagermeister]

I don't care what your experience is, or what credentials you have, when you propose that the United States is two years away from breaking up, then show an absolutely worthless map in which potential splits are only results of their geographic proximity to other nations... you don't deserve any attention. This logic makes virtually no sense.

What should the folks at AP.net take more seriously? The word of a 16-year-old kid from Vermont, or the word of a 50-year-old, respected and well educated and experienced professor? Hmmm. You're gonna take a lot more to convince me that this is 100% not going to happen.

[Machu505]

I highly doubt the US will split up again any time soon, but at least West Virginia will be under EU control.

[Robototron]

What should the folks at AP.net take more seriously? The word of a 16-year-old kid from Vermont, or the word of a 50-year-old, respected and well educated and experienced professor? Hmmm. You're gonna take a lot more to convince me that this is 100% not going to happen.

lol

In the case of this thread, they should take the word of a 16-year-old AMERICAN who actually has at least a passing knowledge of American politics over a 50-year-old Russian propagandist.

[Roboman]

lol @ that map and south carolina possibly joining/ being part of the e.u.:lol:

Hahahah, I know. And the south/southeast under Mexican control or influence? Hahahaah.

Sweet, another Robo!

[IAmNietzche]

What should the folks at AP.net take more seriously? The word of a 16-year-old kid from Vermont, or the word of a 50-year-old, respected and well educated and experienced professor? Hmmm. You're gonna take a lot more to convince me that this is 100% not going to happen.
He is former-KGB, he has no credibility in this instance.

[jagermeister]

lol

In the case of this thread, they should take the word of a 16-year-old AMERICAN who actually has at least a passing knowledge of American politics over a 50-year-old Russian propagandist.

Those are your credentials? I'll pass, thanks.

He is former-KGB, he has no credibility in this instance.

From the article:
"Panarin, 50 years old, is not a fringe figure. A former KGB analyst, he is dean of the Russian Foreign Ministry's academy for future diplomats. He is invited to Kremlin receptions, lectures students, publishes books, and appears in the media as an expert on U.S.-Russia relations."

I hope you don't only read the first sentence of everything else you come across and assume you know what you're talking about. This guy, regardless of how far-fetched his ideas are, isn't an idiot by anyone's standards and has more credential than you or I ever will. He clearly is intelligent, respected and knows what he is talking about to some degree.

That last highlighted part is more than most AMERICANS living in AMERICA could say for themselves, too.

[IAmNietzche]

Those are your credentials? I'll pass, thanks.



From the article:


I hope you don't only read the first sentence of everything else you come across and assume you know what you're talking about. This guy, regardless of how far-fetched his ideas are, isn't an idiot by anyone's standards and has more credential than you or I ever will. He clearly is intelligent, respected and knows what he is talking about to some degree.

That last highlighted part is more than most AMERICANS living in AMERICA could say for themselves, too.
You fail. He may be incredibly smart and have tons of insight into U.S. - Russia relations... but he is former KGB, his bias gives him no credibility whatsoever in this instance.

Guess what, Bill O'Reilly has his own tv-show, speaks at universities, publishes his own books, definitely isn't a fringe figure and is considered by many to be an expert political analyst.... still doesn't mean he has any credibility when talking about politics. It would be like Bill predicting the fall of the democratic party.

[uhaul610]

My biggest problem with this Russian professor's theory about the collapse of the United States is his hate for the United States. Sure, we may have caused problems in the Middle East and it's not doubt that the American depression has affected countless states and countries around the world, but putting the full blame on the United States for these global problems is ludicrous. What also bothers me is the fact that the Russia media has named him a chief expert on US-Russian relations. Maybe it's just me, but I don't understand how his predictions make him this chief expert.

My personal view on the collapse of the United States: it's not going to happen anytime soon. AT BEST, the United States will lose it's hegemonic stance in the world and the balance of power will shift away from unipolarity to a world of multipolarity, in which three or more nations, countries, organizations control the world.

I hope you don't only read the first sentence of everything else you come across and assume you know what you're talking about. This guy, regardless of how far-fetched his ideas are, isn't an idiot by anyone's standards and has more credential than you or I ever will. He clearly is intelligent, respected and knows what he is talking about to some degree.

That last highlighted part is more than most AMERICANS living in AMERICA could say for themselves, too.

You say quallified - He's not qualified to be considered an expert on US-Russia relations. I personally think this guy is an idiot. He obviously has not understood or learned how politics works on a global scale. I would LOVE to see his reasons for the collapse of the United States - warranted, articulated evidence.

You say intelligent - Yeah, this guy might be intelligent, but that does not mean we should accept his viewpoints. IAmNietszche is right - his Russian bias automatically nulls and voids ANY credibility this guy has. He has thoroughly stated that the United States is to blame for EVERY SINGLE global problem. Bias? I think so

[Machu505]

How could you possibly think this will happen? There's so much nationalism here in the states it would take something massive (fucking massive) to split us up. And btw, this is essentially the plot of a video game released in 2005.

[jagermeister]

I never once said I agreed with this guy totally, in fact I claimed the opposite. But still to write off someone completely because you don't think he's credible? Thats kind of weak considering, for the most part, on this forum we're all younger high school or college/university students who are only hoping to one day be as revered as this guy is.

Either way, its an interesting possibility and would definitely be something to see if it occurred. I would just keep it in thought as things in the next year or two are going to get very interesting for you people down in the USA.

[Machu505]

At least my state is nestled between the Canada group and the EU group, so I'll be fine either way.

[uhaul610]

I never once said I agreed with this guy totally, in fact I claimed the opposite. But still to write off someone completely because you don't think he's credible? Thats kind of weak considering, for the most part, on this forum we're all younger high school or college/university students who are only hoping to one day be as revered as this guy is.

Either way, its an interesting possibility and would definitely be something to see if it occurred. I would just keep it in thought as things in the next year or two are going to get very interesting for you people down in the USA.

Credibility kind of means a lot in world politics, especially when it comes to predicting the end of one of the most powerful countries in the history of the world. Sure, this guy might have some qualifications, but the fact that a) he is a KGB and b) he hates the United States (see the article), means he lacks the qualifications to make such a prediction

Insert <IAmNietszche's analysis of Bill O'Reilly> here

[IAmNietzche]

I never once said I agreed with this guy totally, in fact I claimed the opposite. But still to write off someone completely because you don't think he's credible? Thats kind of weak considering, for the most part, on this forum we're all younger high school or college/university students who are only hoping to one day be as revered as this guy is.

Either way, its an interesting possibility and would definitely be something to see if it occurred. I would just keep it in thought as things in the next year or two are going to get very interesting for you people down in the USA.
I'm willing to bet no one outside Russia knows this dude from a fucking hole in the wall. He may not be a fringe figure in Russia, but with ideas like the one in this thread, he is a fringe figure... plain and simple. I am not dismissing him as having no credibility simply because he is former-KGB. I'm dismissing him as having no credibility because he is former-KGB, and has come up with one of the most illogical and biased theories I've ever heard.

[jagermeister]

I fully agree 100% that he is biased, but then again a lot of the things the US or any other nation do or say are also somewhat biased, right?

[uhaul610]

I fully agree 100% that he is biased, but then again a lot of the things the US or any other nation do or say are also somewhat biased, right?

Yeah, but it's just not plausible to think this would happen in the next year and some. (This is me dismissing his claims, not arguing you support his claims)

[IAmNietzche]

The Mexican government can't even begin to control the lawlessness in its own country nevermind the type of backlash that would arise from Texans being forced under "Mexican influence".

The E.U. doesn't have a united military, I wonder how they propose to bring the entire eastern seaboard of the U.S. under their influence.

His bias against the U.S. clearly blinds him to the fact that no U.S. citizen no matter how disillusioned with the American economy is going to willingly accept foreign rule. And none of those nations except maybe China stand a chance of forcefully taking over a piece of the U.S., even a fragmented U.S.

[sdbrown]

The states of The Central North-American Republic would be pretty lucky!

I doubt this would happen though. Americans take great pride in being "united" as far as I know. But who knows what will happen in the future?
Haha, at first I was kind of pissed we weren't going to be part of the E.U., then I saw we'd be with Canada instead so I'm a-ok with it. yay free health care!

for the second part..I mean yeah it's awesome economically because we get the benefit of the corn belt food supply and fruit supplies from CA, NY and MI but, especially around elections, there are usually wishes that some states would float away, break off or just leave the union. How serious those people are I don't know, but personally, I wouldn't mind giving a few states back to the Native Americans

[Rawrr]

I for one, welcome our new Chinese overlords.

[IAmNietzche]

Haha, at first I was kind of pissed we weren't going to be part of the E.U., then I saw we'd be with Canada instead so I'm a-ok with it. yay free health care!
If this ever happened China would take the initiative to grab up all of the U.S....and probably most of Canada.

[IAmNietzche]

The question is... why would any of these nations want these parts of the U.S. There is no way that the American people would welcome foreign rule, and the almost complete lack of natural resources makes the proposition more trouble than it's worth.

[Robototron]

Jagermeister, no one is saying that this guy doesn't have some interesting credentials, but no amount of education or experience will change the fact that he is a former KGB employee currently spouting Russian PROPAGANDA. Anyone's opinion is worth more than his when his entire theory is based on Russian hatred of America.

[Burn That Shit]

That was pretty laughable. China will never control the west coast, haha.

[aoftbsten]

I kinda think the american south, even if it were split from the rest of the country, would still have more power than mexico.
Of course, i'm no expert so i dunno.

I think the idea of foreign powers coming in and carving up the map is a bit ridiculous at this day in age though. But of course, shit happens

[GuitarR0cker1]

hahahahahaha this guy is fucking retarded.

[Posthardcore]

Eh. He's from Russia

[dtrzcin]

Very very very very very very very very very very very improbable. And the division of states seemed irrational. But it was fun to think about.

[dtrzcin]

Texas should secede though. Don't they want to?

[Robototron]

Texas should secede though. Don't they want to?

Alaska should secede too. Or we should just give it away to Russia. Or just given them Sarah Palin and Ted Stevens.

[dtrzcin]

Alaska should secede too. Or we should just give it away to Russia. Or just given them Sarah Palin and Ted Stevens.

Yeah, it's kinda ridiculous having a state that is that far away. Same with Hawaii. Sure, the US could keep them, but they're so far away. They should just be territories. Or like you said, give Alaska to Russia or Canada. No, sell it.

[Machu505]

Why the fuck should Alaska and Hawaii be territories?

[LastPlaceRocks]

Yeah, it's kinda ridiculous having a state that is that far away. Same with Hawaii. Sure, the US could keep them, but they're so far away. They should just be territories. Or like you said, give Alaska to Russia or Canada. No, sell it.
This is some grade-A foreign policy here. Let's sell off part of our country for the hell of it.

[Machu505]

This is some grade-A foreign policy here. Let's sell off part of our country for the hell of it.

No no, let's make them territories. I mean, that TOTALLY wouldn't make us look any more like colonialists than we already do.

[LastPlaceRocks]

No no, let's make them territories. I mean, that TOTALLY wouldn't make us look any more like colonialists than we already do.
Plus you know the citizens of Hawaii and Alaska all want to have some of their rights taken away.

[Robototron]

I think you guys are missing the joke.

[dtrzcin]

Hahahahahaha

[bogga]

This dude's a fucking lunatic. I think it's rooted in envy of HIS country falling apart and wishes it on his enemy.

The immediate worst-case scenario for a divided nation is if someone assassinates President Obama and it erupts into a race war...which of course won't last long as the mostly white-led nation cracks down hard. That would set us back a good 40-50 years in race relations. But it won't split the fucking country! If the United States were on the verge of disunity, it would be absolute chaos and the Feds would win, hands down. (Like the last time.) Our military intelligence alone is terrifying (and bolstered by the Patriot Acts *shiver*), much less our actual military might. If the world every gets to divvy up the United States, they'll be taking over portions of a smoking ruin because our crazy asses won't go down without a MAJOR fight. Just think of all those Air Force and Navy guys who've been itching to drop "the big one" since the Russian blockade of Berlin in 1947. You don't think we wouldn't absolutely level the whole damn planet if something like this ever even came CLOSE to fruition? I love my country but we're a bunch of crazy fuckers who don't like to lose.

Ain't. Gonna. Happen.

[mattybobviously]

What should the folks at AP.net take more seriously? The word of a 16-year-old kid from Vermont, or the word of a 50-year-old, respected and well educated and experienced professor? Hmmm. You're gonna take a lot more to convince me that this is 100% not going to happen.
Damnit, I forgot, that's right, I am just 34 years dumber than this brilliant Russian. If you're former KGB, you think you'd have a table at Russian events? Gee, I wonder. We've got plenty of professors right here in this country, who are "respected" in some circle, that believe in a host of irrational conspiracies.

I never once said I agreed with this guy totally, in fact I claimed the opposite. But still to write off someone completely because you don't think he's credible? Thats kind of weak considering, for the most part, on this forum we're all younger high school or college/university students who are only hoping to one day be as revered as this guy is.
I never want to be revered as a guy who makes a claim that one of the world's superpowers will dissolve in two years, and then break up into control by four different outside groups, most of whom couldn't rationally take control, of territories that have been divided seemingly by a four-year old's crayon. I like to work in the real world.

Either way, its an interesting possibility and would definitely be something to see if it occurred. I would just keep it in thought as things in the next year or two are going to get very interesting for you people down in the USA.
There's a computer game called President Forever 2008. On their forums, people have come up with all sorts of different crazy scenarios to play fun video games. They are all absolutely ridiculous, and yet the political divisions they create make much more sense than this guy's. The only way this makes sense is if he played a game of Risk, saw two different players control the Eastern and Western United States, and then said "Aha! This shall be the un-doing of the United States! The rolling of several dice!"

[Praetor]

Damnit, I forgot, that's right, I am just 34 years dumber than this brilliant Russian. If you're former KGB, you think you'd have a table at Russian events? Gee, I wonder. We've got plenty of professors right here in this country, who are "respected" in some circle, that believe in a host of irrational conspiracies.


I never want to be revered as a guy who makes a claim that one of the world's superpowers will dissolve in two years, and then break up into control by four different outside groups, most of whom couldn't rationally take control, of territories that have been divided seemingly by a four-year old's crayon. I like to work in the real world.


There's a computer game called President Forever 2008. On their forums, people have come up with all sorts of different crazy scenarios to play fun video games. They are all absolutely ridiculous, and yet the political divisions they create make much more sense than this guy's. The only way this makes sense is if he played a game of Risk, saw two different players control the Eastern and Western United States, and then said "Aha! This shall be the un-doing of the United States! The rolling of several dice!"
ilu

[SLoT]

Not going to happen.

[IAmNietzche]

I don't think you know what the EU is. The idea is they would voluntarily join.
I lived in the EU for three years. And there is no way a part of America would willingly join the EU.

[samsara]

Viva Mexico!......dang it

[jawstheme]

I can see a civil war between the rich and the poor if the economy completely collapses far worse than it has, but I don't see why or how this guy broke up the country into these different territories. I definitely don't see it happening by 2010.

[more heart]

lol @ that map and south carolina possibly joining/ being part of the e.u.:lol:

i thought the same thing

[HashHolly]

Never gonna happen, I hope you all realize the United States would nuke its own citizens before it would allow the nation to be divided in such a manner.

[jagermeister]

Damnit, I forgot, that's right, I am just 34 years dumber than this brilliant Russian. If you're former KGB, you think you'd have a table at Russian events? Gee, I wonder. We've got plenty of professors right here in this country, who are "respected" in some circle, that believe in a host of irrational conspiracies.


I never want to be revered as a guy who makes a claim that one of the world's superpowers will dissolve in two years, and then break up into control by four different outside groups, most of whom couldn't rationally take control, of territories that have been divided seemingly by a four-year old's crayon. I like to work in the real world.


There's a computer game called President Forever 2008. On their forums, people have come up with all sorts of different crazy scenarios to play fun video games. They are all absolutely ridiculous, and yet the political divisions they create make much more sense than this guy's. The only way this makes sense is if he played a game of Risk, saw two different players control the Eastern and Western United States, and then said "Aha! This shall be the un-doing of the United States! The rolling of several dice!"

You've changed my life. From now on I will take high school student's statuses and opinions more seriously than I will people who have, you know, had real life experience in the things they talk about. Thanks so much!!!

[samsara]

awwwwww man now I have to learn Spanish.

[Machu505]

awwwwww man now I have to learn Spanish.

Move to the northeast and you won't have to learn shit.

[samsara]

Move to the northeast and you won't have to learn shit.

ahh good idea I will move to the territory that will be taken over by the Canadians.

[more heart]

yay! I'm going to be European, SUHWEEEEEEEEEETT!!!

[mattybobviously]

You've changed my life. From now on I will take high school student's statuses and opinions more seriously than I will people who have, you know, had real life experience in the things they talk about. Thanks so much!!!
I just wish we didn't have to deal with this shit in here, because there have been good discussions. Some KGB loon goes on about a prediction that has ZERO backing in reality, not only in his general concept of dividing into six territories, but specifically the ridiculous borders he has drawn for these regions, which completely ignore political divisions in the country, as well as enormous cultural divisions.

For whatever reason, you seem to be really in to what this guy has to say. So instead of going after me and talking about how I'm unqualified to recognize when something's irrational, why don't you defend it.
- Why on earth is Idaho and Utah choosing to go with California?
- Why are Arizona and New Mexico going different directions?
- Why are Kentucky, Tennessee, and South Carolina going to stick with the North East, and join a union full of countries that there senators love to bash for their terrible socialism?
- How on earth could Mexico take on that many people when their government is so poorly run?
- Why would Canadians ever want Kansas?

The fact is, this is a truly worthless "prediction", it's KGB propaganda, and nothing else. I'm calling it for what it is, just like everyone else, and instead of saying why it's not, you're response is "You're too young, he's smarter". So tell me why he's smarter, tell me why this makes any damn sense.

[jagermeister]

I just wish we didn't have to deal with this shit in here, because there have been good discussions. Some KGB loon goes on about a prediction that has ZERO backing in reality, not only in his general concept of dividing into six territories, but specifically the ridiculous borders he has drawn for these regions, which completely ignore political divisions in the country, as well as enormous cultural divisions.

For whatever reason, you seem to be really in to what this guy has to say. So instead of going after me and talking about how I'm unqualified to recognize when something's irrational, why don't you defend it.
- Why on earth is Idaho and Utah choosing to go with California?
- Why are Arizona and New Mexico going different directions?
- Why are Kentucky, Tennessee, and South Carolina going to stick with the North East, and join a union full of countries that there senators love to bash for their terrible socialism?
- How on earth could Mexico take on that many people when their government is so poorly run?
- Why would Canadians ever want Kansas?

The fact is, this is a truly worthless "prediction", it's KGB propaganda, and nothing else. I'm calling it for what it is, just like everyone else, and instead of saying why it's not, you're response is "You're too young, he's smarter". So tell me why he's smarter, tell me why this makes any damn sense.

You don't know when to stop, do ya? All I've said is to write this guy off completely is ignorance, much like it would be ignorant to accept it fully. Go away.

[steviestare]

I just wish we didn't have to deal with this shit in here, because there have been good discussions. Some KGB loon goes on about a prediction that has ZERO backing in reality, not only in his general concept of dividing into six territories, but specifically the ridiculous borders he has drawn for these regions, which completely ignore political divisions in the country, as well as enormous cultural divisions.

For whatever reason, you seem to be really in to what this guy has to say. So instead of going after me and talking about how I'm unqualified to recognize when something's irrational, why don't you defend it.
- Why on earth is Idaho and Utah choosing to go with California?
- Why are Arizona and New Mexico going different directions?
- Why are Kentucky, Tennessee, and South Carolina going to stick with the North East, and join a union full of countries that there senators love to bash for their terrible socialism?
- How on earth could Mexico take on that many people when their government is so poorly run?
- Why would Canadians ever want Kansas?

The fact is, this is a truly worthless "prediction", it's KGB propaganda, and nothing else. I'm calling it for what it is, just like everyone else, and instead of saying why it's not, you're response is "You're too young, he's smarter". So tell me why he's smarter, tell me why this makes any damn sense.

You have a serious lack of history knowledge. Civil wars are almost always fought over ethnic differences or similar things such as religion. Political divisions usually take sides after it breaks out.

Also, your point about asking why Mexico would take so many people when their government is already shit is just stupid. When has a poorly run government ever done anything logical or not done illogical things. By virtue of being poorly run, they would continue that trend, most likely accounting for why he predicts Mexico would get control.

[tambam]

This is when we Canadians pounce.

[Rawrr]

The fact that this is on the front page of MSN now..lol

[The Database]

lol

[UnderMyDreams]

Is this guy serious?

California would become Chinese? He's a little crazy.

There is no way that the US would have a civil war and break away like that. So many people take pride in being "Americans" I doubt that some part of the US would suddenly be "ok cool" with being Chinese or Mexican.

Seriously.

[deadstar]

The fact that this is on the front page of MSN now..lol
Also one of the top read stories on the wall street journal. Ridiculous.

[SgtFumunda]

It'll be a cold day in hell when my fellow Tennesseans decide to saddle up with a bunch of Yankees and join Europe in anything. Also, there are enough gun-totin' good ol' boys from Texas to the Atlantic coast to level any type of occupation or influence from the likes of Mexico.

[Nevuk]

It wouldn't make any sense for most of the US to break up. In fact, it wouldn't even be possible due to our agricultural infrastructure. Some states could in theory, like california might be able to support itself. But most states would starve. I could forsee a gradual degradation, but a rapid destablization as described won't happen without some apocalyptic occurrences.
Moral degradation is the buzzword that makes no sense from the article.

California and texas either one are both potentially strong enough states to be their own countries, from an economic standpoint. If anything, texas could annex Mexico.

[asmolitor]

You've changed my life. From now on I will take high school student's statuses and opinions more seriously than I will people who have, you know, had real life experience in the things they talk about. Thanks so much!!!

uhhhhhh you're 20. as such, i will denounce all of your opinions simply because you're younger than me. i expect other older AP'ers to do the same to me as well, until that 39 year old guy trumps us all.

anyway, panarin has his own website, and here's the extended version of his crackpot theory, (roughly) translated by google:

http://74.125.93.104/translate_c?hl=en&sl=ru&tl=en&u=http://www.panarin.com/doc/25&usg=ALkJrhggPvFiBP8tSiR7GKm_-lFeo7PqHQ

moral degradation? that's attributed to his own research from well-respected groups like the "women against pornography" on topics such as rape - and a nice stat that 25% of all american men are gay. and, somehow, when he bolds the fact that 200K people take part in gay rights marches, as if to prove some sort of "see, SEE?" point about the downfall of america, i'm probably going to write him off. oh, things like columbine, the DC sniper, and vietnam veteran suicides are actually incredibly relevant to his theory, as well.

and to really drive the point home, the loss of columbia (the space shuttle) in 2003 apparently caused the string of nightclub fires (as in, that great white show). this is also bolded, as if to show significance of the point.

also, second to last paragraph (rough translation):

The fall of the Shuttle Columbia, no less significant and symbolic "for the future of the United States than the terrorist attacks on Washington and New York, the weakening national economy and the growing differences with allies in Europe. As the flooding of the station "Mir" is the end of the era of the great Soviet achievements and the loss of Columbia and a long pause in the U.S. manned space could mark the beginning of the sunset of American science.
A Hurricane Katrina completely razveyal myth of American unity as a nation.

now please, go on. please tell me how igor panarin is a reputable source.

[jagermeister]

uhhhhhh you're 20. as such, i will denounce all of your opinions simply because you're younger than me. i expect other older AP'ers to do the same to me as well, until that 39 year old guy trumps us all.

anyway, panarin has his own website, and here's the extended version of his crackpot theory, (roughly) translated by google:

http://74.125.93.104/translate_c?hl=en&sl=ru&tl=en&u=http://www.panarin.com/doc/25&usg=ALkJrhggPvFiBP8tSiR7GKm_-lFeo7PqHQ

moral degradation? that's attributed to his own research from well-respected groups like the "women against pornography" on topics such as rape - and a nice stat that 25% of all american men are gay. and, somehow, when he bolds the fact that 200K people take part in gay rights marches, as if to prove some sort of "see, SEE?" point about the downfall of america, i'm probably going to write him off. oh, things like columbine, the DC sniper, and vietnam veteran suicides are actually incredibly relevant to his theory, as well.

and to really drive the point home, the loss of columbia (the space shuttle) in 2003 apparently caused the string of nightclub fires (as in, that great white show). this is also bolded, as if to show significance of the point.

also, second to last paragraph (rough translation):


now please, go on. please tell me how igor panarin is a reputable source.

Uhh welcome to 2009, man. I don't care about this anymore. My point the whole time has been that to shut down his theory completely is just as ignorant as accepting it completely as it would be with any theory. Thanks for typing that though, maybe someone else will read it and care about it!

[Nevuk]

Ah, moral degradation means the gays. Are we sure he is not from America himself?

[|adr3naLine|]

So what he's saying, is that in a year, America will completely disappear, and surrounding countries will get free pick of what they want?

I find that a little far fetched.

Where will America go? That comes down this coming administration and maybe the one after. I have hopes that Obama will come in and at least get America's pride back up to where it should be, and unite us a little more.

[asmolitor]

Uhh welcome to 2009, man. I don't care about this anymore. My point the whole time has been that to shut down his theory completely is just as ignorant as accepting it completely as it would be with any theory. Thanks for typing that though, maybe someone else will read it and care about it!

quality responses in this thread. top-notch.

[B-Bones]

The fact that you didn't take the time to read the entire article, but comment on it, leads me to believe that Robototron has no idea what she's talking about and just wants to get her name in the thread.

Seriously??? You've got to read the stuff you're going to comment on. This man has a lot of experience and a lot of credentials so what he said should not just be taken lightly as crazy or scary as it sounds.

I'd say it's about as absolutely ridiculous as it sounds but that's just me.

[B-Bones]

I for one, welcome our new Chinese overlords.

LOL. I'm gonna start studying Chinese. Can't be too prepared.

[steviestare]

LOL. I'm gonna start studying Chinese. Can't be too prepared.

Even if this doesn't happen... Knowing Chinese is going to be a step up in the world come the next 10-20 years. They are going to economically rule the world.

[trindaddy]

Haha, I wouldn't mind be Canadian as long as I don't have to drink milk out of a bag.

[Poe-tryGirl]

We get Chicago? I'm down.
Nice.

[Poe-tryGirl]

I think this is insane. I'm obsessed with Russia. This dude thinks ahead! I need to look into this more deeply.

[envi]

California will form the nucleus of what he calls "The Californian Republic," and will be part of China or under Chinese influence. Texas will be the heart of "The Texas Republic," a cluster of states that will go to Mexico or fall under Mexican influence. Washington, D.C., and New York will be part of an "Atlantic America" that may join the European Union. Canada will grab a group of Northern states Prof. Panarin calls "The Central North American Republic." Hawaii, he suggests, will be a protectorate of Japan or China, and Alaska will be subsumed into Russia.


*Laughs and laughs and laughs*

[LLcoolChance]

See you in Kansas.

[modlife]

How could you possibly think this will happen? There's so much nationalism here in the states it would take something massive (fucking massive) to split us up. And btw, this is essentially the plot of a video game released in 2005.

The US is not going to split up. It is getting bigger. They have already signed up to the North American Union with Mexico and Canada.

But the professor guy is somewhat right.

There will be MASSIVE civil unrest and Martial Law in the US very soon.

[Machu505]

The US is not going to split up. It is getting bigger. They have already signed up to the North American Union with Mexico and Canada.

But the professor guy is somewhat right.

There will be MASSIVE civil unrest and Martial Law in the US very soon.

Did Ron Paul get an AP account or some shit?

[envi]

The US is not going to split up. It is getting bigger. They have already signed up to the North American Union with Mexico and Canada.

But the professor guy is somewhat right.

There will be MASSIVE civil unrest and Martial Law in the US very soon.

Source.

[Nevuk]

Countries spontaneously breaking up into tiny pieces is really rare, especially this late ... (Most of the US has been together for far over 100 years, has a similar culture, same language, etc.)

[HashHolly]

See you in Kansas.

here's to hoping that was a Jericho reference

[LLcoolChance]

here's to hoping that was a Jericho reference
Anything else that it might be?

[Thug_Nasty]

mexico is a shit of a country. they would not give part of our country to them because then theyd be forcing the current illegal immigrants to move further north to steal our jerbs.