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Caleb Cattivera
07/19/05, 10:01 PM
NFL Insider...July 19: Fantasy; Pacman Jones; Farve; Chargers G.M. AJ Smith;



FFL '05: Is Peyton Worth No. 1?
By Tristan H. Cockcroft

Conventional wisdom suggests that a fantasy football owner drafts heavily on running backs -- at least two and perhaps even three -- in the first three rounds. The idea is that running backs both bring the most fantasy scoring potential to the table and play the thinnest of the "big three" skill positions, meaning all the top talent generally is gone by the start of round four.

Peyton Manning
Quarterback
Indianapolis Colts
Profile


2004 SEASON STATISTICS
Att Comp PaTD RuTD Int Rat
497 336 49 0 10 121.1



But things are changing, and this year, it could be a mistake to listen to the masses who insist you must nab a running back with your first-round selection. This year, if I get a chance to draft Peyton Manning, I'm taking it. That includes spending the No. 1 overall pick in the draft.

We've all had it so ingrained into our minds over the years that it's a bad idea to pick a quarterback -- or a wide receiver, for that matter -- in the first round of our drafts, so the very notion of picking Manning No. 1 overall might seem absurd. The numbers, however, back up the fact that it's a strategy worth considering this season, perhaps the first time in years a player other than a running back is actually deserving of the honor.

Folks, we're talking about a record-setting quarterback here. Manning's 49 passing touchdowns were one more than Dan Marino's 48, set back in 1984, and they served as just the fourth instance in NFL history any quarterback passed for 40 or more scores. Manning also passed for 4,557 yards, the 12th-best single-season total in history and only 527 short of Marino's 1984 total. And he did it despite effectively playing just 15 games; Manning was removed from the regular-season finale after just one series. Give him that game back and he might have been a 4,850-yard, 52-TD passer.

Marino's 1984 season is actually an interesting parallel to Manning's 2004: Marino quite likely would have found himself the No. 1 or 2 pick overall in most 1985 fantasy football drafts after his record-setting effort, and thinking back to that era, fewer people doubted his ability to sustain that kind of pace than do Manning today. Maybe a quick look at Marino's 1985 statistics -- 4,137 passing yards, 30 touchdowns -- tells you he would have been a bust as a No. 1 overall pick, but keep in mind those were still league-leading totals. Eric Dickerson, the other candidate for the top spot that year, declined by 871 rushing yards and two touchdowns, so it's not like he would have been any better a top pick.

The 1985 season would have marked the second of three consecutive seasons Marino would lead the NFL in passing yards and passing touchdowns, so if he could have been considered a "franchise" fantasy quarterback at the time, then why can't Manning today? Manning's critics, who say he has "no shot" at repeating last year's 49 touchdown passes, probably overlook the fact that Marino threw for an impressive 44 TDs in 1986, just two years after his 48-TD effort.

Incidentally, even if Manning can't repeat his 49-touchdown effort, does anyone really believe he'll drop off by 10 scores or more? A 40-touchdown season would still rank him among the greatest single-season QBs of all-time, and in a league that rewards just four points per touchdown pass, that's only 36 lost points, not enough to knock him from his perch high on the ESPN leaderboard.

OK, so Manning's skeptics point out that he didn't even top that leaderboard in 2004; that honor went to Daunte Culpepper, whose 390 FFL points topped Manning's 372. Of course, Culpepper appeared in all 16 games last year, which helped. He's without favorite receiver Randy Moss this year, though, which could cost him dearly in the touchdown pass department and therefore affect his FFL total. Manning, meanwhile, still has his full arsenal of receivers -- Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne and Brandon Stokley -- so there's little reason to believe he's in for as steep a decline in performance.

Speaking of Culpepper, the fact that he and Manning held such a considerable advantage over their brethren serves more to back the notion of gambling early on a quarterback. Culpepper had 84 more FFL points than the No. 3, Donovan McNabb and 102 more than the No. 4, Trent Green, while Manning held a 66-point advantage over McNabb.

That differential is even more startling when compared to the running back position. Listed below are the differences between Culpepper, Manning and other quarterbacks, as well as Shaun Alexander, Tiki Barber and other running backs, in terms of 2004 FFL points. The "last active" starter in 10-team league would be the No. 10 QB or No. 20 RB, while the "average" starter would be the average points produced by the top 10 QBs or top 20 RBs.

Last active starting QB: 253 FFL PTS (No. 10), 241 FFL PTS (No. 12)
Average starting QB: 297.5 (10-team), 288.8 (12-team)
Culpepper vs. AVG starting QB: 92.5 better (10-team), 101.2 (12-team)
Manning vs. AVG starting QB: 74.5 (10-team), 83.2 (12-team)


Last active starting RB: 165 FFL PTS (No. 20), 149 FFL PTS (No. 24)
Average starting RB: 212.9 (10-team), 202.9 (12-team)
Shaun Alexander vs. AVG starting RB: 84.1 better (10-team), 94.1 (12-team)
Tiki Barber vs. AVG starting RB: 72.1 (10-team), 82.1 (12-team)

2005 FFL QB LEADERS
Culpepper, 390 points
Manning, 372
McNabb, 306
Green, 288
Plummer, 282
Favre, 281
Delhomme, 277
Brooks, 267
Bulger, 259
Brady, 253




Those numbers indicate that in 2004, a top quarterback provided as significant an advantage over a replacement quarterback than a top running back had over a replacement running back. And considering running backs like Barber, Curtis Martin, Willis McGahee and Reuben Droughns finished as top-20 players at their position despite being picked lower than 20th overall at their position demonstrates both the unpredictable nature of running backs as well as the prospect of getting fantasy-starter potential out of a later pick.

Think about it: Doesn't it just feel like the running-back position is deeper than ever this season? I wouldn't be opposed to owning any of the top 20, and if you presume that non-running backs Culpepper, Randy Moss, Terrell Owens and perhaps even Donovan McNabb will go in the first or second rounds, then that means that in a serpentine draft, the team picking first is guaranteed to get a top-20 running back in the second round.

For instance, in a 12-team league, those who pick Manning first will still get picks No. 24 and 25, which could both be running backs. If you can still get two decent-upside backs like, say, Tatum Bell and Carnell Williams, why is that traditionally considered a riskier strategy than taking guys like Jamal Lewis and LaMont Jordan with late first-round and early second-round picks and then grabbing a Kerry Collins type later on at quarterback? Manning gives you consistency, and Lewis and Jordan are hardly that much more guaranteed to come through for your team as high-upside types like Bell and Williams.

Picking Manning first will certainly raise some eyebrows among your leaguemates, but why worry about mass opinion? If you're convinced he'll finish anywhere near his 2004 totals, the numbers back him up as a smart choice as the No. 1 overall selection.

"Pacman" Having Rough Summer
Seth Wickersham blog

During the Rookie Symposium, Adam "Pacman" Jones was reportedly yapping away on his cell phone during the sessions, in the hallways, the entire time.
Let's hope he was saying, "You mean I'm going to lose how much money?"

Jones has already had a helluva career for someone who hasn't played a game yet, or even signed a contract yet. In April, he was listed on an incident report after a brawl broke out in an Atlanta nightclub, but no charges were filed. In June, Jones and some pals were booted from a hotel after not checking out on time; police found pot in the romm and one of Jones' friends said it was his.

Then last week a Titans-friendly nightclub owner asked Jones and his friends to leave after he realized that Jones' friends -- not Jones -- were lighting blunts. The night ended with Jones facing two charges of misdemeanor assault and one felony vandalism charge. Jones has also already gone through his first agent and has claimed that he'll play exactly how he did in college and not worry about the NFL's five-yard contact rule.

At the minimum, all of this means Jones has got to get his friends to shape up. But it's likely the Titans will force him to get himself together first.

Aside from wondering how he's been paying for all this partying, there was one thing left I was wondering: Would the all these screwups come back to hurt Jones come contract time?

Titans GM Floyd Reese told the Tennessean that Jones will be hit where it hurts.

"We're going to have to protect ourselves three or four different ways," Reese said. "We're not going to run the risk of doing something dumb to make sure somebody doesn't miss day one. This one will be a little bit different, and it's not something we've created."

In the end, it's the most effective way the Titans can police their top draft pick, someone who Reese refers to as a "child." His bonus money will be limited, probably the lowest figure we've seen in years for the first cornerback picked.

We're still not through with Pacman. August 11 is his first court appearance. Tags will not be shy to suspend or fine Jones if he's found guilty or settles his charges. Jones isn't done costing himself money he has yet to earn.

Just when you think Brett Favre is through with Drew Rosenhaus, he just keeps going. Monday he stopped between the 14th and 15th holes in a charity golf tournament to tell the Journal Sentinel's Lori Nickel that he won't shy from comments of disappointment he's made about Rosenhaus' clients, Javon Walker and Grady Jackson. "I haven't called him yet," Favre said of Rosenhaus. "I don't think he'll answer my calls.

Rosenhaus had said that he wanted to give Favre the full details of why his clients were considering holdouts.

"Set me straight on what?" Favre said. "I've played 14 straight years. I have not held out one time. He has nothing to say to me."

I have no idea why Favre has kept going with this, or why he put his nose in it in the first place, but I'm glad he did. Nothing like a Superagent vs. Greatest Playing Quarterback feud. Hint to Drew: Favre will win the PR battle on this. Back off while you can.
posted: July 19, 2005 7:49:50 AM PDT | Feedback

Chargers' GM pops off
Seth Wickersham blog

In holdout talks, it's usually the players who brag about what they've done and why they deserve more money. Guys like Shaun Alexander certainly seem ready to recite their stats when more money is at stake. Over the weekend, another NFL personality publicly patted himself on the back for what he's done in the past year.
Only it wasn't a player.

It wasn't even an agent.

It was Chargers GM A.J. Smith, who over the weekend laced on his boxing gloves, visualized himself landing the knockout blow and entered the ring for a fight -- only to find out he was the only one there.

The topic was the Chargers' first-round pick, defensive end/linebacker Shawne Merriman, and his agent, Kevin Poston. Already ticked off that the Postons, who have never been afraid to hold a guy out of camp, had advised Merriman not to take part in offseason workouts because he could get injured, Smith sounded off to The San Diego Union-Tribune.

"He will be given a good contract by the Chargers, and if he rejects it and misses the first day of camp, it's only going to get worse," Smith said. "They don't have leverage -- not with this organization." Then Smith brought up how well he handled last year's marquee holdout, Philip Rivers, and his agent, Jimmy Sexton. "Call Jimmy Sexton and ask him and you'll find out. He played games, and everything blew up in his face. He got the double whammy."

Way to rub it in. Of course, Smith knows the score in this situation because Rivers missed most of training camp, didn't get the type of deal that maybe he should have and never had a chance against Drew Brees, who threw 27 touchdown passes to only seven picks and led San Diego to a 12-4 record before coach Marty Schottenheimer killed the Chargers' season by choking in the playoffs.

I'm all for Smith holding firm to whatever deal he thinks is fair for the 12th overall pick, but drumming up Rivers' situation, as if he fleeced Sexton and wanted the world to know about it, probably wasn't too sharp. You really think that the Poston brothers, who if nothing else are extremely competitive, want to be the next agent that Smith publicly laughs at for receiving the "double whammy"?

I doubt it. Smith just upped the ante. We'll see whether betting on himself pays off.

While I'm on the subject of holdouts -- a topic that might dominate much of August's banter -- how about Chad Johnson over the weekend claiming that he sees a holdout coming, possibly next year, if he doesn't get his. Will I have to start a "Holdout Watch" in this blog?

Classy move
I was at the wedding of Mike Smith, of ESPN fame, this weekend in Boston. Only an ESPN employee could get hitched at a church a few blocks away from Fenway Park at the exact moment the Red Sox threw the first pitch against the Yankees. I have never seen such traffic.

Anyway, there was an employee of the New England Patriots at the wedding. As I was chatting with him outside the chapel, I noticed his Super Bowl ring -- impressive indeed. The official actually brought two rings with him: the bling-heavy chunk from last year's game, which was in his pocket, and the almost-as-impressive load from Super Bowl XXXVI, which he wore.

Why wear a ring from 2002, I asked.

We won the game in New Orleans, Mike Smith's hometown, he replied. Nice touch.
posted: July 18, 2005 9:32:05 AM PDT | Feedback


NFL Rumor Central: Law back to New England?

WHO INTERESTED THE SKINNY

Ty Law

Patriots?
Jets?
Steelers?
Buccaneers
Dolphins
Jaguars
Lions
Chiefs?
Colts?

Law back to New England?
Jul 19 - In a surprising twist, Law claims Bill Belichick has called him personally (no agents) to say the Pats still are interested in his services, The Boston Herald reports.
Law's contract demands -- reportedly about $6 million per year -- and the Pats' salary cap situation make a return unlikely, but Belichick apparently has not given up on the four-time Pro Bowler.

The Jets responded to cornerback Donnie Abraham's retirement by intensifying their interest in Law, the New York Daily News reports.

The Jets are believed to be one of eight teams showing interest in Law, although his asking price could be prohibitive. The Jets and Jaguars could be the front-runners.

While the Bucs reportedly faxed Law a contract proposal, USA Today suggests the team's dire salary-cap situation makes its interest merely wishful thinking. The Steelers could be a more likely landing place, according to the paper.

Other teams that reportedly remain interested in the veteran CB include the Dolphins, Chiefs, Lions and Colts.


WHO INTERESTED THE SKINNY

Lance Schulters
Titans

Titans?
Dolphins?
Falcons?
Cowboys?
Rams?
Lions?

Dolphins, Schulters far apart
Jul 19 - Schulters' agent, Brian Levy, said Monday that it's unlikely the free-agent safety will sign with Miami unless he receives a better contract offer, the South Florida Sun-Sentinel reports. The Dolphins have concerns about the foot injury that sidelined Schulters for 13 games last year.
When the Titans let Schulters go, GM Floyd Reese told him that if he couldn't find a suitable location elsewhere, the Titans would have some interest in re-signing him for a lesser deal, the Nashville City Paper reports.

The 49ers, Lions, Packers and Falcons also reportedly remain interested.

Goodbye Forever
07/19/05, 10:08 PM
I hope the Jets get Ty Law. Really. A Whole lot.

still_life
07/19/05, 11:55 PM
I'd take Manning with the first pick in a fantasy draft. Why wouldn't you? He's raised his completion % every season in the league, so there's a good chance he'll be completing almost 70% of his passes this year. He said he left 17 TDs on the field last year. He threw 49 while playing in only 3 quarters of some games, and one series in the last one. He probably won't top 49, but like the article says, a 40 TD season is still likely. And you know he'll be over 4000 yards again.

hobotodd311
07/24/05, 12:28 PM
I can't wait til training camp starts.