Not a China man's chance

[commatosa]

Is China going to become the world's next superpower? Really, if they want to be, we'll just have to step aside. Unfortunately, we don't match up to their strength. What do you guys think?

[FScott]

Is China going to become the world's next superpower? Really, if they want to be, we'll just have to step aside. Unfortunately, we don't match up to their strength. What do you guys think?I'm glad you posted on China. Here is an article (in Time but found it also in The Atlantic) I read on how and why we would fight China.

http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/prem/200506/kaplan

"For some time now no navy or air force has posed a threat to the United States. Our only competition has been armies, whether conventional forces or guerrilla insurgencies. This will soon change. The Chinese navy is poised to push out into the Pacific—and when it does, it will very quickly encounter a U.S. Navy and Air Force unwilling to budge from the coastal shelf of the Asian mainland. It's not hard to imagine the result: a replay of the decades-long Cold War, with a center of gravity not in the heart of Europe but, rather, among Pacific atolls that were last in the news when the Marines stormed them in World War II. In the coming decades China will play an asymmetric back-and-forth game with us in the Pacific, taking advantage not only of its vast coastline but also of its rear base—stretching far back into Central Asia—from which it may eventually be able to lob missiles accurately at moving ships in the Pacific."

I also read that China and Russia are performing joint military operations. With our armies stretched as thin as they are there is no way we could overpower China alone.
http://www.mosnews.com/news/2005/08/02/exercises.shtml

[YouMadeTheScene]

i really don't want to be taken control of by the chinese. that'd ruin my whole day.

[swirlofhues]

I'd be spared.

[the_narrator]

I'm learning Chinese right now, just so I can plead for my life. Wo ai zhongguoren. :wow:

On a serious note, I disagree with the article, somewhat. I cannot read the whole thing. We should strike China? Are you kidding me? Yes, right now, China has an army that is not exactly "up to date." However, that would be a "first strike" on a country that has done nothing. No one in the UN (save maybe Britain, but I doubt it with the flak that Blair has been getting from his own people) would even think to help. The Middle East is heavily influenced by China (anyone read the Aug/Sept issue of the Economist?), and it will not be in our best interest to fuck with them like that anytime relatively soon.

Still, the U.S. can play their cards perfectly fine. Back in the day Russia was in the same position that China is moving towards. The US can rely on allies (if they stop alienating them) and their huge fucking economy (China has to work to stable theirs. They collapsed once in the 90's, I think, once it started getting big) to move safely. "Soft Power." I'm an advocate. I'd like to read the rest of that article, but it says I have to subscribe. :( I also totally missed the Foreign Policy issue covering this, and I haven't had time to pick up the old Foreign Affairs Journal (it's built fucking thick, and I haven't had time).

Finally, China and Russia are just doing War-games. That doesn't mean an alliance at all. Both of their armies are backwards compared to the progress of certain European and North American armies. Plus, both have plenty of reason to see the other as competition, not a friend. Why wouldn't they also be doing this to display their abilities, not just to each other but to everyone?

I'd like to see some more opinions on this, but right now, I don't believe all this hype. I'm far too liberal to believe war should occur to even things out.

Edit: P.S. We do match up to their strength, should they attack. Just because they have a shitload of people in their standing army doesn't mean everything. Alliances, technology, nationalism, and government strength play huge factors.

[awdeetdeet]

nobody poses a threat to us. We are backed by Britain and more importantly....Israel.

[Speyside]

nobody poses a threat to us. We are backed by Britain and more importantly....Israel.
He's got a point, Israelis are probably the toughest motherfuckers in the world. There's nothing quite like living in Gaza to toughen someone up a bit. We could probably take out half of China with a baker's dozen of those Jews.

[siberianxkiss]

why would china jeopardize their economy? we are their biggest consumer.

[Kid Kilowatt]

We owe them billions. If only we could do something to stop our borrowing, like, I don't know, eliminate the tax cuts.

[VinnyVegas]

A Communist country will never stimulate enough economic growth to overtake the U.S. They can "relax" their control of the economy, but it will never be enough. However, if they adopted a capitalist democratic system, they would become a contender in the near future.

I would start to worry about China if we continue to elect inept politicians.

[Paul Tao]

I probably wouldn't be spared, I'm too white of a Chinese person.

[xgloryxfadesx27]

In the state that our country is in right now, and with the majority of our armed forces stationed in Iraq or Afghanistan, I wouldn't be surprised if China came over and kicked our American asses. It'd actually be pretty funny.
-dan

[aminorthreat55]

It'd actually be pretty funny.
Uhhhhh, no.

[youcomebeforeyo]

Yes China will be the next superpower.

They're already playing Capatalism against the Western world. The country has kept it's currency at an artificially low rate for several years now. More and more companies are moving to China.

On pure numbers it will soon dominate to, 4 times the size of the US and an increasing military budget (That said only a fraction of what the USA currentely spends).

Another cold war? Quite likely. The future of oil could have a huge impact on which of these superpowers becomes THE superpower. China has some advantage considering its vicinity to the Middle East.

[the_narrator]

You disagree with the article but you didn't read it? Wow. Now if you would have read the article you would have read why (if the occasion arises) we would strike China.

And as for allies we lost quite a few thanks to President Bush. Dearr FScott,

On a serious note, I disagree with the article, somewhat. I cannot read the whole thing. I'd like to read the rest of that article, but it says I have to subscribe. Thank you for reading what I wrote. I said, I would like to read it, however it asks me to subscribe to read the rest. Later, I lamented that I would like to do so, implying if I get the chance or if I every subscribe to the article. I clearly disagreed with the first few paragraphs, but I did not claim to have read the whole thing. That is why I said "somewhat." Maybe I should have clarified, and made that another paragraph after that first quote.

Second, my opinion is not swayed by one internet article, especially one written by Robert D. Kaplan. If it's the same man, you should seriously consider looking up his other stuff. Every thing I read about him, or hear from his mouth on C-SPAN2 frustrates me. I'm not a fan of neocons, especially him. Even if I read the article, I've read enough outside of Mr. Kaplan's opinion to think we would not. But, if you'd like to do so, feel free to list his reasons as your own, so I can devise a judgment.

However, just browsing quickly, I found this site refuting the one you sent me. I figure it's just a blog, and you shouldn't take it seriously, but you can skim it for whatever it is worth:
http://www.fromthewilderness.com/free/ww3/062005_kaplan_clamor.shtml

That did remind me of some of the stuff he has written. Now that I think of it, you can list Kaplan's ideas, but the sheer possiblity that I will not refute a bit of it is slight. I do recall his Iraq proposal. Ugh.

As for allies, I'm not sure what you have been reading. You're talking public opinion, and I'm talking who is going to side with the the strongest economic power in the world (1/3 the GNP, is that right? I'm not entirely sure.). There are more factors into it then what the stupid mainstream media would have most believe. But, maybe you are correct. You didn't exactly argue with me, just state a sentence.

Finally, I would appreciate it if you did not act condescending in a political debate. If you would like to make a remark, I'd love it if you would just state Kaplan's points (being as I cannot see them) or even read over what I wrote.

Thank you!
-Felicia

[FScott]

Well I'm sorry I misunderstood you that is my fault entirely. And I will delete that post unless you say otherwize.

But I also think that China is a rising concern and that the subject should not be taken lightly.

[the_narrator]

Well I'm sorry I misunderstood you that is my fault entirely. And I will delete that post unless you say otherwize.

But I also think that China is a rising concern and that the subject should not be taken lightly.
Don't delete your post. I'd never ask that. I simply could not read Kaplan's statements, so I did not know what your opinion was on it. I agree that China is a rising concern, I just think that striking the next superpower isn't smart. I just do not like war, and I have more faith in people and the international community's diplomacy than resorting to the "first strike." I am impressed that you read up on the subject at all, since most people simply say, "China is huge. Fuck."

More and more companies are moving to China.

On pure numbers it will soon dominate to, 4 times the size of the US and an increasing military budget.

China has some advantage considering its vicinity to the Middle East.
Hey! Interesting points. More companies are moving to China (which is helping their economy) but they're also exploiting their people. :( I'd like to see labor laws kick in, but I doubt it.

I'm just wondering where you got those numbers. I do not doubt you, I just like to read up on sources. It's cool if it was from something in class though.

That last part is very true. But they haven't always had the best relations with them.

Though you should recall that China still is tip-toeing because of the UN. The cold war was also considered the "Long Peace" because nothing happened. This time around, though, there is the EU (though they claim to be purely "economical" and to solve "community problems" they are helping ally and strengthen most of Europe), the UN (for what it's worth), and a weaker Russia to contend with. This is a nice balance of powers that might put things in perspective for China.

What do you think?

[ArTkY_]

We owe them billions. If only we could do something to stop our borrowing, like, I don't know, eliminate the tax cuts.
Finally someone who agrees with me.

China will indeed be the next superpower, but we have a lot of allies. A bipolar world is going to exist once again. And frankly, the world isn't ready and never will be ready for a Cold War that might actually happen.

[Lueda Alia]

Well considering how history always repeats itself (because people decide to be idiots), let me predict the next decades: China becomes the new superpower, but then China will be involved in a war, and then they won't be a superpower anymore. Some other country will be. And that country will also be involved in a war, and they'll lose power too. Oh but then another country will be a super power and so on.. until we're all going to be dead because we can't learn from mistakes that people in the past have made.

[the_narrator]

Well considering how history always repeats itself (because people decide to be idiots), let me predict the next decades: China becomes the new superpower, but then China will be involved in a war, and then they won't be a superpower anymore. Some other country will be. And that country will also be involved in a war, and they'll lose power too. Oh but then another country will be a super power and so on.. until we're all going to be dead because we can't learn from mistakes that people in the past have made.
And Canada is the last one standing. Go ahead and say it.


And, Tariq, is it? That's pretty much what I said. But I was trying to point out that China (as of right now) is nowhere near the capacity they need to be at to be a Superpower in the modern world, and that we shouldn't attack them. I agree with all your points.

[ArTkY_]

And Canada is the last one standing. Go ahead and say it.


And, Tariq, is it? That's pretty much what I said. But I was trying to point out that China (as of right now) is nowhere near the capacity they need to be at to be a Superpower in the modern world, and that we shouldn't attack them. I agree with all your points.
Sorry dude, I didn't read your post. We should definetly not attack them, that would be the stupidest move anyone could make. China has almost unlimited man power and they have nuclear weapons. That would be suicide.

[Andy]

I'm glad you posted on China. Here is an article (in Time but found it also in The Atlantic) I read on how and why we would fight China.
Haha, that was the first thing that came to you? WE MUST FIGHT THEM!

[FScott]

Haha, that was the first thing that came to you? WE MUST FIGHT THEM!Just an interesting article I read.

[Andy]

Stop being so stereotypical.

[FScott]

live and let live

[Andy]

Haha, okay.

[FScott]

Unfortunately, we don't match up to their strength. What do you guys think?
When Commatosa is talking about strength that is why I suggested the article I read on Chinas rising military power (strength) the theoretical overview of what warfare would be like if the US and China were to declare war.

[the_narrator]

When Commatosa is talking about strength that is why I suggested the article I read on Chinas rising military power (strength) the theoretical overview of what warfare would be like if the US and China were to declare war.
However, it was written by a guy whose past articles are a little extreme. Was that article any better, though?

I found a good article a couple months ago on the actual strength of china's army, based on equipment and training. I'll try to find it.

[FScott]

I don't know what to beleive.

[jsteil]

I would agree that china will become the next super power basically because or the reasons already stated. A cold war could exist still with a strong uprising on Anti-USA in the middleeast and latin america along with China that buys alot of oil from Venuezula.

[Dan Hollister]

Oh, wow, those of you who think China is not poised to become the next superpower are so dead wrong.

Don't bother with opinion or speculation - look at the fucking numbers.

Our economy grows by about 2.5% annually. China's grows by 8%. At those rates, eventually one line will cross the other. Before 2020, their economy will have surpassed ours.

Keep in mind that this is unlikely to change - the exponential growth curve does not apply to our overall economic status, and we've remained at a 2.5% growth rate for decades.

Look guys, I know we've only been alive during the time America was (is) king. But every society has its ups and downs. We've been in a prominant location for some time now, but it looks as if we're on our way out. Just just by China - but by a lot of nations.

- China's manufacturing can't be beat by anyone.
- Japan and France collectively own most of our entertainment industry.
- Korea is so far ahead of us in genetics and stem cells, it would make your head spin.
- Germany's biotech research surpasses anyone else's in the world.
- India's IIT college is far better than any Stanford, MIT, Berkeley, or any other school. And the students they produce are smarter than ours, and work cheaper.
- Doctors from Mexico and Thailand are now just as good as ours, and often better, but are cheaper and more readily available.

People don't seem to realize what kind of a position the US is in. Everyone is so used to being on the top that they don't bother to look at where we really are. In reality, we're in a good place right now, but we are poised to be kicked down the food chain a few notches this century.

Anyone who disagrees, look around you. Countries like India and China are pushing kids to get an education that far surpasses ours. Meanwhile, what are we doing? Let's see... our schools are an abomination, we're getting overrun by illegal immigrants, our government is unwilling to consider the viable industries we could be leading in...

[aminorthreat55]

Our economy grows by about 2.5% annually. China's grows by 8%. At those rates, eventually one line will cross the other. Before 2020, their economy will have surpassed ours.
Not sure where you got that date, the most commonly recited source is Goldman Sachs and they claim just before 2040 it should happen.

[justokre]

I dunno if this is true or not, but I heard that many of the companies in China are owned by the United States. That can't help China much more than it helps us, right?

[selftitled85]

Oh, wow, those of you who think China is not poised to become the next superpower are so dead wrong.

Don't bother with opinion or speculation - look at the fucking numbers.

Our economy grows by about 2.5% annually. China's grows by 8%. At those rates, eventually one line will cross the other. Before 2020, their economy will have surpassed ours.

Keep in mind that this is unlikely to change - the exponential growth curve does not apply to our overall economic status, and we've remained at a 2.5% growth rate for decades.

Look guys, I know we've only been alive during the time America was (is) king. But every society has its ups and downs. We've been in a prominant location for some time now, but it looks as if we're on our way out. Just just by China - but by a lot of nations.

- China's manufacturing can't be beat by anyone.
- Japan and France collectively own most of our entertainment industry.
- Korea is so far ahead of us in genetics and stem cells, it would make your head spin.
- Germany's biotech research surpasses anyone else's in the world.
- India's IIT college is far better than any Stanford, MIT, Berkeley, or any other school. And the students they produce are smarter than ours, and work cheaper.
- Doctors from Mexico and Thailand are now just as good as ours, and often better, but are cheaper and more readily available.

People don't seem to realize what kind of a position the US is in. Everyone is so used to being on the top that they don't bother to look at where we really are. In reality, we're in a good place right now, but we are poised to be kicked down the food chain a few notches this century.

Anyone who disagrees, look around you. Countries like India and China are pushing kids to get an education that far surpasses ours. Meanwhile, what are we doing? Let's see... our schools are an abomination, we're getting overrun by illegal immigrants, our government is unwilling to consider the viable industries we could be leading in...


its called the catch up effect. china's economy basically fell in the 90s. now since it was in awful shape it is growing very fast. but once it gets to a reasonable level it will slow down. the us economy hasnt changed in a while because we have a stable economy.

china is set for a huge setback in the coming future. china has that one baby per family in place. meaning if the fam gets a girl they may kill her to get a boy. what this leads to is more guys than girls. right now its at 120 boys to 100 girls. this is going to lead to huge problems in the future. chinas avg age is 33 yrs old. the working force is getting old and the upcoming force is not as large as the one in place.

[justinevans]

China a super power? Maybe, but....

China has risen so well because they have pegged their currency to ours. We buy most of the goods made in China.

They no longer peg the yuon or whatever it is called to the dollar.

If their prices rise, their economy will quickly fall.

They have too many people to take care of.

People seem to forget that the US is the superpower that buys everyone else's crap. We help keep their economies stable.

We'll see what happens.

[Dan Hollister]

I'm not necessarily saying that China's going to rule the world. But I am saying that there's so many countries competing with us right now in various markets - and doing much much better than we are in them - that we aren't going to be on top for much longer, either. Unless we really, really, really shape up.

[justinevans]

I'm not necessarily saying that China's going to rule the world. But I am saying that there's so many countries competing with us right now in various markets - and doing much much better than we are in them - that we aren't going to be on top for much longer, either. Unless we really, really, really shape up.

WE ARE THE MARKET! WE BUY ALL OF THE SHIT!

Oh, wow, those of you who think China is not poised to become the next superpower are so dead wrong.

Don't bother with opinion or speculation - look at the fucking numbers.

Our economy grows by about 2.5% annually. China's grows by 8%. At those rates, eventually one line will cross the other. Before 2020, their economy will have surpassed ours.

Keep in mind that this is unlikely to change - the exponential growth curve does not apply to our overall economic status, and we've remained at a 2.5% growth rate for decades.

Look guys, I know we've only been alive during the time America was (is) king. But every society has its ups and downs. We've been in a prominant location for some time now, but it looks as if we're on our way out. Just just by China - but by a lot of nations.

- China's manufacturing can't be beat by anyone.
- Japan and France collectively own most of our entertainment industry.
- Korea is so far ahead of us in genetics and stem cells, it would make your head spin.
- Germany's biotech research surpasses anyone else's in the world.
- India's IIT college is far better than any Stanford, MIT, Berkeley, or any other school. And the students they produce are smarter than ours, and work cheaper.
- Doctors from Mexico and Thailand are now just as good as ours, and often better, but are cheaper and more readily available.

People don't seem to realize what kind of a position the US is in. Everyone is so used to being on the top that they don't bother to look at where we really are. In reality, we're in a good place right now, but we are poised to be kicked down the food chain a few notches this century.

Anyone who disagrees, look around you. Countries like India and China are pushing kids to get an education that far surpasses ours. Meanwhile, what are we doing? Let's see... our schools are an abomination, we're getting overrun by illegal immigrants, our government is unwilling to consider the viable industries we could be leading in...


China is going to have a revolution. 70% of the chinese live in the country and do not benefit from this growth, but they are hurt by it.

Also, alot of the growth is actually inflation and now their currency is not pegged to ours, you'll see their curency go in the shitter.

[Dan Hollister]

WE ARE THE MARKET! WE BUY ALL OF THE SHIT!
We buy all the shit because we have the money to do so. As soon as a country has more money than we do, they will start buying the shit. The rich countries spend the most money. So if any country's GDP rises above ours, they will proceed to spend more money.

You think we spend money just because we're America? No, we spend it because we have it. As soon as someone else has it, they will spend it to.

Also, just FYI, we don't buy everything. Take cell phones, for example. They are much much much more popular in Japan and Europe than the United States.

My point still stands. If you are that ignorant that you don't think we have anything to worry about when other countries surpass us in major industries, then you're helping us take another step towards America going downhill.

It's not rocket science, folks. We don't have money because we're awesome. We have it because we pioneered industrialization and technology. But industrialization and technology are becoming old news. Whichever country pioneers the next "hit industry" - which is often thought to be biotech or genetics - will be the next superpower. If China does it, then China will be the next superpower. If Korea does it, then Korea will be the next superpower.

The better solution is to stop saying, "Oh, it won't happen..." (when it easily can, if we don't watch outselves) and to start working on being competetive. Sitting on our asses talking about how rich we are may be true for now, but it won't remain true in the future unless we choose to be competetive.