I say this without having even seen it, but Beasts seems like the kind of movie that could just steamroll the competition at the end. I think it definitely gets into Best Picture, and I think it could win. I don't really see anything else that feels like a winner on the horizon, but it's always hard to tell.
I also haven't seen it yet, but I get the feeling it will be more like a Tree of Life situation. It will get the nomination, but will be too polarizing to general audiences to get the win.
From all accounts, Argo and Silver Linings Playbook are great movies as well as crowd pleasers. I think they will have a much better shot at winning with the Academy. And they love their biopics, so Lincoln definately has a shot.