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07:32 AM on 09/21/12 
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TJ Wells
i'll see you at the movies.
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Portland, OR
Male - 27 Years Old
I also haven't seen it yet, but I get the feeling it will be more like a Tree of Life situation. It will get the nomination, but will be too polarizing to general audiences to get the win.

From all accounts, Argo and Silver Linings Playbook are great movies as well as crowd pleasers. I think they will have a much better shot at winning with the Academy. And they love their biopics, so Lincoln definately has a shot.
That's interesting. I find my mom to be a huge gauge of how the general public will feel about a particular film overall (she's big on movies like Fireproof and Facing the Giants if that tells you anything), and she fucking loved it. It could definitely turn into a Slumdog situation (though this film is miles better than that one was). Plus, it's got Oprah backing.
07:32 AM on 09/21/12 
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TJ Wells
i'll see you at the movies.
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Portland, OR
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07:33 AM on 09/21/12 
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Craig Manning
Down in Jungleland
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I also haven't seen it yet, but I get the feeling it will be more like a Tree of Life situation. It will get the nomination, but will be too polarizing to general audiences to get the win.

From all accounts, Argo and Silver Linings Playbook are great movies as well as crowd pleasers. I think they will have a much better shot at winning with the Academy. And they love their biopics, so Lincoln definately has a shot.

Could be. Like I said, I haven't seen it, so I don't know about its "crowd pleasing" quotient. Psyched for Argo and Silver Linings, and I would love to see either of those get directorial recognition. As for Lincoln, a nomination seems likely, but I will guarantee right now that it won't win.
07:35 AM on 09/21/12 
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Craig Manning
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That's interesting. I find my mom to be a huge gauge of how the general public will feel about a particular film overall (she's big on movies like Fireproof and Facing the Giants if that tells you anything), and she fucking loved it. It could definitely turn into a Slumdog situation (though this film is miles better than that one was). Plus, it's got Oprah backing.

Yeah, I was thinking a Slumdog or The Artist situation seemed likely. Those films started getting buzz early, and after they started picking up early awards, nothing could stop either of them. It's been awhile since one of the big end-of-the-year "prestige" pics actually came in and won it.
07:40 AM on 09/21/12 
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TJ Wells
i'll see you at the movies.
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Portland, OR
Male - 27 Years Old
Yeah, I was thinking a Slumdog or The Artist situation seemed likely. Those films started getting buzz early, and after they started picking up early awards, nothing could stop either of them. It's been awhile since one of the big end-of-the-year "prestige" pics actually came in and won it.
I was about to say The King's Speech, but I just checked and apparently it was independent and only cost $15 mil. I guess the last prestige studio pic to win was, what, The Departed? And really, the last "studio prestige pic" to win was Return of the King almost ten years ago. Crazy.
07:50 AM on 09/21/12 
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Craig Manning
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I was about to say The King's Speech, but I just checked and apparently it was independent and only cost $15 mil. I guess the last prestige studio pic to win was, what, The Departed? And really, the last "studio prestige pic" to win was Return of the King almost ten years ago. Crazy.

Yeah, The King's Speech actually kind of came out of nowhere. It had strong buzz all year, but really started catching on around Christmas time, and was pretty unstoppable after that. I was thinking No Country For Old Men or The Departed? Both made by respected directors in the community and probably anticipated with a certain amount of buzz going into the season. Since then, it's been one lesser known director after another.
09:28 AM on 09/21/12 
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ctmk
Get him a cranberry juice
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Coming out of Toronto, Argo and Silver Linings Playbook seem like front runners for BP nominations. I"m sure The Master will be in there too, but it probably won't be the type of movie the Academy will have win.

really? The book and trailer are awful

The Master isn't the type of movie that will win? Its exactly the type of movie the academy loves, prestige acting. prestige director, etc. If you're referring to the plot being based around scientology then you might have an argument.
09:35 AM on 09/21/12 
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TJ Wells
i'll see you at the movies.
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Portland, OR
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really? The book and trailer are awful

The Master isn't the type of movie that will win? Its exactly the type of movie the academy loves, prestige acting. prestige director, etc. If you're referring to the plot being based around scientology then you might have an argument.
Based on all accounts, Silver Linings Playbook should be a lock for picture, director, actress, supporting actor, and screenplay. And if it really catches on I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Cooper slip in for best actor.
09:46 AM on 09/21/12 
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jawstheme
I'm not here. This isn't happening.
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Based on all accounts, Silver Linings Playbook should be a lock for picture, director, actress, supporting actor, and screenplay. And if it really catches on I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Cooper slip in for best actor.

I hope you're wrong about this, but you seem to follow and know award stuff better than I do.
03:23 PM on 09/21/12 
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Craig Manning
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really? The book and trailer are awful

The Master isn't the type of movie that will win? Its exactly the type of movie the academy loves, prestige acting. prestige director, etc. If you're referring to the plot being based around scientology then you might have an argument.

Again, haven't seen it yet, but it just seems too dark, downbeat, and challenging to fit with the kind of movies they've been going for. It will score a nomination (and Anderson will probably get in for director), but it won't win for a lot of the same reasons that The Tree of Life could never have won last year.
12:58 AM on 09/22/12 
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ctmk
Get him a cranberry juice
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Los Angeles
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Again, haven't seen it yet, but it just seems too dark, downbeat, and challenging to fit with the kind of movies they've been going for. It will score a nomination (and Anderson will probably get in for director), but it won't win for a lot of the same reasons that The Tree of Life could never have won last year.

If No Country for Old Men can win, this can. We have yet to see a few of the most likely challengers though. My predicted noms are:
Lincoln
The Master
Beasts of the Southern Wild (which really is fantastic btw)
Moonrise Kingdom
Les Mis

To the Wonder might have a shot as well as The Hobbit, Argo, Zero Dark Thirty, and possibly, TDKR.
01:35 AM on 09/22/12 
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cshadows2887
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This seems like a relatively un-stacked "Oscar season", honestly, compared to other years. I wonder if that sense might be what prompted the last-minute additions of Hitchcock and Promised Land to the race, thinking that they could make some noise in a thin field.
06:15 AM on 09/22/12 
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brandon_260
Ah, yes.
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Oshawa, Ontario
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To The Wonder doesn't even has distribution yet. The chance of it getting released before the end of the year looks a little slim. I wouldn't count it in for anything.
06:23 AM on 09/22/12 
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Craig Manning
Down in Jungleland
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If No Country for Old Men can win, this can. We have yet to see a few of the most likely challengers though. My predicted noms are:
Lincoln
The Master
Beasts of the Southern Wild (which really is fantastic btw)
Moonrise Kingdom
Les Mis

To the Wonder might have a shot as well as The Hobbit, Argo, Zero Dark Thirty, and possibly, TDKR.

There have been a lot of years where No Country would have lost though. It really depends on what the challengers are and what the Academy on the whole likes the most. I have a hard time believing that a polarizing Paul Thomas Anderson film will ever play that role.
06:35 AM on 09/22/12 
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itsallcalypso
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This seems like a relatively un-stacked "Oscar season", honestly, compared to other years. I wonder if that sense might be what prompted the last-minute additions of Hitchcock and Promised Land to the race, thinking that they could make some noise in a thin field.

I think it's a pretty good year for Oscar movies. I mean the only contenders that have been released so far are Moonrise Kingdom, Beasts, and The Master. But Argo and Silver Linings Playbook are sure bets coming out next month. Then we've got Lincoln, Django, Les Mis, Flight, Zero Dark Thirty, The Impossible, Life of Pi, The Hobbit, and now Hitchcock and The Promised Land. I'm sure some of them will be duds but there're some great directors releasing movies in the final quarter of this year that will probably be real contenders. I hope so at least. I'm hoping this line up will be the best since 2007.



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