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Familiar childhood dreams Twin Cities, MN Male - 24 Years Old | Nate Silver's predictions:
Quote: Best Picture: Argo. “Lincoln, once considered the front-runner, has been nominated for almost every best picture award but won none of them. Counting on a comeback would be a bit like expecting Rudolph W. Giuliani to have resurrected his campaign in Florida in 2008 after finishing in sixth place everywhere else.”
Best Director: Steven Spielberg. “The next most-common winner of best director awards, after [Ben] Affleck, has been Kathryn Bigelow, for Zero Dark Thirty. But Ms. Bigelow was snubbed by the Academy as well.”
Best Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln. “Bradley Cooper (Silver Linings Playbook) did win the Satellite Award and the National Board of Review’s award for best actor, but neither has a strong track record, whereas Mr. Day-Lewis has swept the awards that predict Oscar success well.”
Best Actress: Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook. “The 85-year-old Emmanuelle Riva (Amour), meanwhile, won the Bafta in an upset and is now attracting a lot of buzz as a potential Oscar surprise. But one rule-of-thumb in elections analysis is that ‘momentum’ is often given too much credence by pundits.”
Best Supporting Actor: Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln. “This is almost certainly the most competitive category: all five nominees have won Oscars before, and there is no consensus choice.”
Best Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway, Les Misérables. “Anne Hathaway as about as safe a bet to win for Les Misérables as Mitt Romney was to win Utah.” |
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