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Amour 6 14.29%
Anna Karenina 2 4.76%
Argo 31 73.81%
The Avengers 10 23.81%
Beasts of the Southern Wild 17 40.48%
The Dark Knight Rises 14 33.33%
Django Unchained 33 78.57%
Hitchcock 2 4.76%
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey 6 14.29%
The Impossible 3 7.14%
Les Miserables 22 52.38%
Life of Pi 21 50.00%
Lincoln 26 61.90%
The Master 17 40.48%
Moonrise Kingdom 20 47.62%
The Sessions 5 11.90%
Silver Linings Playbook 25 59.52%
Skyfall 12 28.57%
Zero Dark Thirty 28 66.67%
Other 8 19.05%
Multiple Choice Poll. Voters: 42. You may not vote on this poll

 
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09:36 AM on 01/07/13 
#1
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Craig Manning
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I think we're going all the way to ten this year.

Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Django Unchained
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Moonrise Kingdom
Silver Linings Playbook
Skyfall
Zero Dark Thirty

Alternates: Amour, The Master, The Impossible
10:01 AM on 01/07/13 
#2
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Craig Manning
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The Master
Beasts Of The Southern Wild
Argo
Zero Dark Thirty
Lincoln
Les Miserables

Silver Linings Playbook
Life Of Pi
Moonrise Kingdom
Django Unchained

I think the first 6 are pretty likely to get nominations... The last 4 may or may not... Amour could possibly get a nod too, but I think it will be for Foreign Language Film

I think you might be overestimating the chances for The Master (and underestimating Silver Linings).

I fucking hope so. That list would absolutely make the AMC marathon worth it.

Oh hell yeah, I would do that in a heartbeat for that list. Last year wasn't bad, but had a lot of movies I didn't care much to watch again. Regardless, I'm certain our nominees are in that list of 13.
10:02 AM on 01/07/13 
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Craig Manning
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Also, I find it interesting how much Flight fell down. A bunch of pundits were playing up its chances at making it back around its release (or in the weeks when it was doing really well), and that talk just seems to have died. You didn't even include it!
10:11 AM on 01/07/13 
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Craig Manning
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You might be right. I haven't seen either movie yet, but I plan on seeing both before the awards. I know Silver Linings has gotten more response on most people's prediction lists, but I'm sticking with the Master over SLP just to be different and go out on a limb...

I just don't think The Master is the Academy's cup of tea and I think it's buzz has tumbled tremendously, especially since Phoenix made those comments about the Oscars. Hoffman will still get in for supporting, but if the film does make it, it will be the last one over the line. As for Silver Linings Playbook, if this were a year of five, that would very likely be the fifth film, so it's a lock for the expanded field.

sorry, but I chuckled when I read that

Haha, forgot to add "(pun intended)."
10:55 AM on 01/07/13 
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Craig Manning
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You're probably right, I kind of forgot about Joaquin Phoenix saying that.

I assume you've seen both films... I'm fairly certain I remember you saying you liked The Master quite a bit, but correct me if I'm, wrong... is SLP really that good?

I actually haven't seen The Master yet. Didn't get a chance to catch it in theaters, and since we haven't gotten a screener or a DVD release yet, I'm still waiting. But I make a point of following numerous Oscar blogs, and it just seems that, while The Master has done reasonably well with the critics groups and is obviously well liked in the film community, it's too divisive and challenging to make it in, especially in a year where the end-of-the-year prestige pics really delivered.

Silver Linings Film is a different kind of film entirely, and they aren't really comparable. I personally loved it for what it was, which is a well-executed, well-acted romantic comedy. I think it's too lightweight to win Best Picture, but I definitely think it deserves a nomination.
11:29 AM on 01/07/13 
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Craig Manning
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I wasn't paying attention when I quoted you. I thought I was quoting TJ, which is why I assumed you had seen both movies. I'm waiting for a screener/DVD of The Master as well.

I've noticed on the blogs that The Master isn't fairing too well as far as a nomination goes for Best Picture, but I was thinking along the same lines as you about SLP being a little to lightweight for Best Picture (but maybe it'll get a nomination... same with Moonrise Kingdom, which I hope does because I loved it)

I mean, Silver Linings is far from a bubblegum, generic romantic comedy. It's got weight and charm. But next to films like Lincoln, Argo, Zero Dark Thirty, or I suppose Les Mis, it doesn't feel like it has the power to swing a victory...especially since it didn't make quite the splash I think it could have. The Master on the other hand, is too heavy to be a Best Picture winner.
12:42 PM on 01/07/13 
#7
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Craig Manning
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I need to see The Master

Haha, you and me both, my friend.
03:38 PM on 01/07/13 
#8
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Craig Manning
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My votes; except add The Master for Skyfall.

Skyfall is definitely the wildcard there. If it misses though, I think that either means we'll only have 9 nominees or that Amour will be the beneficiary.
07:11 PM on 01/07/13 
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No Country and The Hurt Locker were both the best films nominated in the years they won, even if I personally like Inglourious Basterds more than the latter.
08:20 PM on 01/07/13 
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I don't understand what that means. Are you saying your own opinion is wrong? That there is a rigid objective quality that you didn't agree with?

Perhaps I should have phrased differently. Yes, I believe that, objectively, The Hurt Locker is the finer film: for what it says, for the tight narrative drive, and for the sheer directorial precision. Basterds is bloated and indulgent, and I fully sympathize with the arguments of its detractors, but I still love it beyond all reason, still enjoyed it in the theater more than almost any other film in recent memory, and can still watch it anytime. The Hurt Locker doesn't have the same replayability factor, but when I do watch it, it still bowls me over.

Disagree on all counts!

Which films do you think should have won in those years? And I mean of what was nominated, since I know there are people out there (in this very thread, probably) who would argue that the Academy has never even nominated the best picture of any given year.

I would call awards season the most destructive force in film. Blockbusters are destructive, but they don't infringe on what should be quality in the same way.

Not trying to be derogatory, just genuinely curious: if you feel this way, why bother posting in this thread. There are clearly people here who are still interested in nthese proceedings, still value the Academy opinion, and still love the films that are in the conversation. Nothing wrong with your taste not tilting that way, but why hang out in a thread singularly bent on predicting the Oscar nominees if you view the Oscars as the most destructive force in film?
08:53 PM on 01/07/13 
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Ah, upon review I was mistaken on Hurt Locker, for some reason I thought it was the same year as Winters Bone. I guess I'd pick Hurt Locker but maybe A Serious Man. But I would pick There Will Be Blood over No Country without question.

Ahhh, gotcha. I always forget about A Serious Man, even though it was one of my favorite films of that year. It still baffles me that they even nominated that though: it's not an "easy" or "accessible" film.

I figured you'd go for There Will Be Blood, and that seems like an argument that will play out between fans of those two films for ages. I never had any strong affection for Blood, even though DDL is obviously fantastic in it. I've always been firmly in the No Country camp though, and I think I'll defend that as the rightful winner (and one of the best BP winners ever) for as long as I pay attention to these things. Either way, that year was unreal. Just a shame they left stuff like Assassination of Jesse James and Zodiac out of the conversation.
09:01 PM on 01/07/13 
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Agreed it was a great year for BP nominees.

The final slate actually didn't really reflect how good the year really was.Would have been a perfect year to have ten nominees.



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